Conflict Over Internationally Shared Water Resource (DP IB Geography)

Water Resources & Conflict

• Across the world, 17 countries face ‘extremely high’ levels of water stress 

• Over 2 billion people live in countries with high water stress

• This can lead to conflict over water resources 

Tigris Euphrates River conflict

• The Tigris Euphrates River conflict has been an ongoing issue since the 1960s

• The Euphrates river source can be found in Türkiye and flows through Northern Syria and Iraq

• Turkey, Iraq and Syria are all countries facing high water stress

Map of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers 

• The Euphrates River is 2800 km long

• The Tigris River is the second largest river in Western Asia

• The Tigris River is surrounded by four countries:

  • Türkiye

  • Syria

  • Iraq

  • Iran

• The confluence of the two rivers is in the town of Al-Qurnah in the south-eastern area of Iraq

• Both rivers originate in Türkiye flowing south-east to the mouth of the rivers is the Persian Gulf

• It is estimated that over 60 million people rely on the Euphrates River

• In 1975, a potential armed conflict occurred between Syria and Türkiye over water usage

Why is there a conflict?

• Türkiye relies heavily on energy imports, which has led them to focus on hydropower

• The creation of the Llisu dam on the Tigris River by Türkiye triggered geopolitical tensions with Iraq and Syria

  • Iraq and Syria unsuccessfully used international legal and diplomatic means to prevent construction of the dam

• Türkiye created the Southeastern Anatolian Dam project (GAP) and hydroelectric plants along both major rivers

• It is estimated that the dam projects constructed by Türkiye have reduced Iraq’s water supply by 80% since 1975

• The Llisu dam is set to reduce the Tigris water flow into Iraq by 56%

• Between 2020-21 the region experienced its second-lowest rainfall season in 40 years

• Türkiye has withheld water along the Euphrates

How has climate change intensified the conflict? 

• The river basin is one of the world’s most vulnerable watersheds

• Temperatures in the region are increasing twice as fast as global averages 

• Surface evaporation will place further pressure on the rivers and those that use them

• The Tigris had a reduced flow of 29% and the Euphrates 73% in 2021

• There is a possibility that the flows of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers will reduce by 30% and 60% respectively, by the end of the century

• Tishrin Dam will only be used for drinking water and not for agriculture in 2023 because Syria has also experienced below-average precipitation

Role of stakeholders in finding resolutions 

• The Llisu dam was completed in May 2020 and since then Iraq has requested a minimum month-to-month flow from Türkiye

• The Iraqi government announced their intention to work on diplomacy with Syria and Türkiye as well as build a future dam to support their own water needs 

• Government changes in Türkiye have meant that they have adopted an approach of ‘zero problems’ with neighbouring countries to reduce possible conflict

• Türkiye’s water legislation policies have been changed to a more diplomatic style of inclusivity due to its proposal to join the European Union

• Syria has been adopting a National Drought Strategy to identify drought-prone areas and providing drought reports in both Arabic and English

• There are no official agreements between the countries that rely on the water basin

Future possibilities 

• A research paper produced by Cascades (an organisation looking at the impacts of climate change) outlines three scenarios in the Tigris Euphrates River basin

  • ‘Turbulent transition’ where democratic and economic reforms are implemented to stop conflict in the area over water scarcity

  • ‘Authoritarian autarchy’ where repressive regimes increase their power in the region

  • ‘Precipitated progress‘ where resources are used efficiently but not distributed equally