Perception of Risk vs Actual Risk (Edexcel International A Level Biology): Revision Note

Perceived vs Actual Risk

• Risk is defined as the chance or probability that a harmful event will occur

• The statistical chance of a harmful event occurring needs to be supported by scientific evidence gained from research 

• An individual's perception of risk may be different to the actual risk of something occurring

  • Risk can be overestimated because of factors such as

    • Misleading information in the media

    • Overexposure to information

    • Personal experience of the associated risk

    • Unfamiliarity with the event

    • The event causing severe harm

    • Lack of enjoyment of an activity

  • Risk can be underestimated because of factors such as

    • Lack of information 

    • Misunderstanding of factors that increase the risk

    • A lack of personal experience of the associated risk

    • Unfamiliarity with the event

    • The harm being non-immediate

    • Enjoyment of an activity

• The statistical chance of an event occurring often bears little resemblance to someone's perception of the risk

  • E.g. the global annual risk of being killed in a road accident is 1 in 1 547, and the global annual risk of death due to crashing during a flight is 1 in 4.5-5.5 million; despite this people are far more likely to have a fear of flying than a fear of driving