Development and Demographic Data (Edexcel IGCSE Geography)

Demographic Transition Model

• The demographic transition model illustrates the five generalised stages that countries pass through as they develop

• It shows how the birth and death rates change and how this affects the overall population as the country 

Stage 1

• The total population is low 

• High birth rates due to lack of contraception/family planning 

• High death rates due to poor healthcare, poor diet and famine

• High infant mortality which leads people to have more children so that some children survive to adulthood

Stage 2

• The total population starts to rise rapidly

• Birth rates remain high as people continue to have large families

• Death rates decrease as a result of improved diets, better healthcare, lower infant mortality and increased access to clean water

Stage 3

• The total population continues to increase but the rate of growth slows down

• Birth rate starts to fall rapidly due to increased birth control, family planning, increased cost of raising children and low infant mortality rate 

• Death rate still decreasing but at a slower rate as improvements in medicine, hygiene, diet and water quality continue

Stage 4

• The total population is high and is slowly increasing

• Birth rate is low and fluctuating as there is accessible birth control and more women are choosing to have fewer children and delay the age that they start to have children

• Death rate is low and fluctuating 

Stage 5

• The total population starts to slowly decline as the death rate exceeds the birth rate 

• Birth rate is low and slowly decreasing

• Death rate is low and fluctuating

Demographic Data - Population Pyramids

• Population pyramids (also known as an age structure diagram) are a type of graph which can be used to illustrate the structure of a population

• They illustrate the distribution of population across age groups and between male/female

• As countries develop the shape of the population pyramid changes 

• The least developed countries like Niger have a concave pyramid shape

• At the start of stage 2 of the demographic transition model

• This indicates:

  • High birth rate

  • Low life expectancy

  • High death rate but starting to decrease

  • High infant mortality rate

  • Young dependent population dominates

• Developing countries such as Nepal have a pyramid shape

• Stage 3 of the demographic transition model

• This indicates:

  • Decreasing birth rate 

  • Increasing life expectancy

  • Decreasing death rate

  • Decreasing infant mortality

  • Larger working age population

• Developed countries such as the USA have a column shape

• Stage 4 of the demographic transition model

• This indicates:

  • Decreasing birth rate 

  • Increasing life expectancy

  • Decreasing death rate 

  • Low infant mortality

  • Larger working age population

• Developed countries such as Japan have a pentagon shape with a narrowing bottom

• Stage 5 of the demographic transition model

• This indicates:

  • Decreasing birth rate 

  • Increasing life expectancy

  • Death rate is higher than the birth rate due to the ageing population

  • Low infant mortality

  • Ageing population

Birth & Death Rates

Birth Rate

• As a country develops the birth rate decreases due to:

  • Increased availability of contraception and education about family planning

  • Infant mortality decreases so people have fewer children as they know children are more likely to survive

  • More education and employment opportunities for women

  • Changing cultural expectations about family size

Death Rate

• As a country develops the death rate decreases due to:

  • Improvements in healthcare and availability of medicines

  • Improvements in diet and availability of food

• In stage 5 the death rate rises slightly as a result of the ageing population

Ageing & Youthful Populations

• In stages 1 and 2 of the demographic transition model the population is younger with large numbers of dependent children

• In stages 3 and 4 the numbers of young people (under 15) starts to decrease

• In stages 4 and 5 the numbers of older people increase creating a dependent ageing population