Population Change (Cambridge (CIE) IGCSE Geography)

Population Change

• There are two ways in which a population can change:

  • Migration 

  • Natural population change

Migration

• Migration can cause the population to either increase or decrease

• This occurs as the result of emigration or immigration

• Net migration is the difference between the number of people moving into a country (immigrants) and the number of people leaving the country (emigrants)

Natural Population Change

Natural causes of population change

• Rapid global population increase has been the combination of numerous factors, including improvements in:

  • agriculture, particularly during the agricultural revolution, led to higher yields and more varied diets

  • medicine and medical care, which reduces the death rate

  • technology and transport led to a wealthier population, which increased life expectancy

  • water supply and sewage disposal leading to a reduction in disease

• All these factors also led to a decrease in the death rate 

• The birth rate has remained high mainly in LEDCs due to:

  • lack of access to family planning and contraception 

  • an increase in women surviving childbirth

  • families continuing to have large numbers of children to look after their parents in old age and to help support the family

  • the culture of having larger families, which takes many years to change

  • religious reasons 

• Natural change in population is calculated by subtracting the death rate from the birth rate

• The combination of a decreasing death rate and high birth rate led to rapid natural increase and population explosion

• A natural decrease happens when the birth rate is lower than the death rate

• Population also changes as a result of migration into and out of a country/area but this is not part of the natural increase

Demographic Transition Model

• The demographic transition model shows the five generalised stages of population change that countries pass through as they develop

• It shows how birth and death rates change over time and how this affects the overall population as the country 

Stage 1

• The total population is low 

• High birth rates due to lack of contraception/family planning 

• High death rates due to poor healthcare, poor diet and famine

• High infant mortality leads people to have more children so that some children survive to adulthood

Stage 2

• The total population starts to rise rapidly

• Birth rates remain high as people continue to have large families

• Death rates decrease as a result of improved diets, better healthcare, lower infant mortality and increased access to clean water

Stage 3

• The total population continues to increase but the rate of growth begins to slow

• The birth rate begins to fall rapidly due to increased birth control, family planning, increased cost of raising children and low infant mortality rate 

• The death rate is still decreasing but at a slower rate as improvements in medicine, hygiene, diet and water quality continue

Stage 4

• The total population is high and is increasing slowly 

• The birth rate is low and fluctuating due to accessible birth control and the choice of having fewerchildren, as well as delaying the age women start to have children

• The death rate is low and fluctuates 

Stage 5

• The total population starts to slowly decline as the death rate exceeds the birth rate 

• The birth rate is low and slowly decreasing

• The death rate is low and fluctuates

Population Change

• All countries have different rates of population change

• Population growth rates are currently highest in LEDCs such as Niger, Mali and Zambia

• Population growth rates are lowest in MEDCs 

  • In someMEDCs, such as Italy and Japan, the population is decreasing as the number of deaths is higher than the number of births

• These changes are dependent on three factors:

  • fertility

  • mortality

  • migration

Fertility

• As well as the birth rate, fertility can also be measured by the fertility rate

• There are several factors affecting fertility which can be categorised as social, economic or political

Social

• Infant mortality rate

  • When this is high, the fertility rate also tends to be high as women have more children to ensure some survive to adulthood

• Education

  • Higher levels of education lead to lower fertility rates as more women are in formal employment

• Religion

  • Religious beliefs can influence how many children a woman has

• Healthcare

  • The availability of contraception and family planning 

Economic

• Cost of having children

  • In MEDCs the cost of raising children may reduce the number of children a woman has

• Lack of pensions

  • In LEDCs, children are needed to care for elderly parents as there are no pensions. This increases the fertility rate

• Contribution to family income

  • In LEDCs, children often work to contribute to family income so more children are needed, increasing the fertility rate

Political

• Pronatalist policies

  • Encourage women to have children and increase the fertility rate

• Anti-natalist policies

  • Encourage women to have fewer children, which decreases the fertility rate

Mortality

• The death rate is affected by a range of factors:

  • Quality of, and access to, healthcare

  • Natural disasters: famine, drought, etc.

  • Diseases such as HIV/AIDS

  • War/conflict

Case Study: Niger

• In 1960, the population of Niger was 3.3 million

  • By 2021, the population had reached nearly 25 million

• Niger has a population growth rate of 3.8%

  • This is the combination of a high birth rate and a rapidly decreasing death rate

High Birth Rate

• The reasons for the high birth and fertility rates in Niger include:

  • The average age of marriage is 15.7 years, meaning that women have more childbearing years

  • Low levels of education for women only 4 out of 10 girls finish primary school

  • High value is placed on large families

  • Only 12% of women use modern contraception

• The death rate in Niger is decreasing, falling from 29 per 1000 (1960) to 8 per 1000 (2020)

• The decreasing death rate has been the result of:

  • Increased urbanisation, which improves access to services such as healthcare and food

  • Better food and clean water supply

  • Improved access to healthcare

  • Government policies to improve farming practices, which have increased food supplies

  • Free healthcare to pregnant women improving mother and baby survival rates

Impacts

• The impacts include:

  • A highly dependent population of young people below the age of 15

  • Increased pressure on schools and health services

  • A younger population should increase economic growth but job and wealth distribution is uneven

  • Increased rural-urban migration to seek work

    • Development of illegal settlements on the edges of cities

  • Food shortages: an estimated 2.5 million people are suffering from food insecurity

Reducing population growth

• In 2014, Niger adopted a framework to promote fertility reduction by:

  • abolishing child marriage (marriage under the age of 18)

  • improving access to education

  • improved access to health services, contraception and family planning advice

  • girls and women no longer need permission from parents/husbands to access contraception

  • married and/or pregnant girls can still go to school to ensure they continue to receive an education

Case Study: Japan

• In 2010, Japan's population reached 128.1 million people

  • By 2020, the population had decreased to 125.8 million people

• Japan has a population change rate of -0.3%

• This is a combination of a low birth rate and an ageing population 

Low Birth Rate

• The fertility rate in Japan is 1.36 births per woman, well below the fertility replacement rate of 2.1

• The birth rate is 7.1 per 1000 people

• The reasons for the low birth rate include:

  • increasing numbers of women focusing on careers and delaying having children

  • inability to afford buying/renting own home (70% of unmarried people live with their parents)

  • declining marriage rate and increase in average age people get married (women 29.5 years, men 31 years)

  • economic insecurity: jobs are not as secure

  • the expense of children is high due to childcare costs

Ageing population

• The death rate has increased in Japan from a low of 6 per 1000 in 1982 to 11 per 1000 in 2020

• In that time, life expectancy has increased from an average of 77 years to 84.36 years

• This means the increased death rate is not due to poorer healthcare, diet or standard of living but because the population is ageing 

• One-third of the population is over 60 years old and over 12% are over 75 

  • Older people are more likely to become unwell and die

  • The older the population, the higher the proportion of people who will die

Impacts

• Shortage of workers

  • With increasing numbers of the population being retired, there are not enough workers to replace them

  • Fewer innovations

  • Closure of some services

• Higher taxes

  • An ageing population puts more pressure on health service and pension payments

  • There is predicted to be a shortage of 380,000 workers for elderly care by 2025

  • Taxes have to be increased to pay for healthcare and pensions

• School closures

  • Fewer children mean that schools and childcare facilities may close with the loss of jobs

  • An average of 450 schools close each year due to falling numbers

• Economic stagnation

  • The economy does not grow due to a lack of workers and the closure of businesses and industry

  • The standard of living does not improve or falls

Solutions

• Development of robots to help with elderly care, such as in the Shin-tomi nursing home in Tokyo

• Immigration laws were revised in 2018 to attract foreign workers and help with the worker shortage

  • The aim is to attract 340,000 new workers

• The Angel Plan was a five-year plan in 1994 to increase the birth rate, followed by the New Angel Plan in 1999 and Plus One Policy in 2009, these all aimed to encourage people to have children by;

  • improving the work environment to fit with family responsibilities

  • better childcare services

  • improved maternity and child health services

  • better housing for families

  • improved education facilities 

• Plus One Proposal is the most recent policy and aims to increase 'parent-friendly' working and the construction of 50,000 new daycare facilities