Population Change (Cambridge (CIE) IGCSE Geography)
Revision Note
Written by: Bridgette Barrett
Reviewed by: Jenna Quinn
Population Change
There are two ways in which a population can change:
Migration
Natural population change
Migration
Migration can cause the population to either increase or decrease
This occurs as the result of emigration or immigration
Net migration is the difference between the number of people moving into a country (immigrants) and the number of people leaving the country (emigrants)
Examiner Tips and Tricks
Remember immigration and emigration are not the same. Immigration is the inward movement of people into a country. Emigration is the outward movement of people from a country.
Natural Population Change
Natural causes of population change
There are many factors which have combined to cause the rapid global population increase including improvements in:
agriculture particularly during the agricultural revolution led to higher yields and more varied diets
medicine and medical care which reduces the death rate
technology and transport, lead to a wealthier population which increases life expectancy
water supply and sewage disposal leading to a reduction in disease
All these factors also led to a decrease in the death rate
The birth rate has remained high mainly in LEDCs due to:
lack of access to family planning and contraception
an increase in women surviving childbirth
families continue to have large numbers of children to look after their parents in old age and to help support the family
the culture of having larger families which takes many years to change
religious reasons
Natural change in population is calculated by deducting the death rate from the birth rate
The combination of a decreasing death rate and high birth rate led to rapid natural increase and population explosion
Natural decrease occurs when the birth rate is lower than the death rate
Population also changes as a result of migration into and out of a country/area but this is not part of the natural increase
Demographic Transition Model
The demographic transition model illustrates the five generalised stages of population change that countries pass through as they develop
It shows how birth and death rates change over time and how this affects the overall population as the country
Stage 1
The total population is low
High birth rates due to lack of contraception/family planning
High death rates due to poor healthcare, poor diet and famine
High infant mortality which leads people to have more children so that some children survive to adulthood
Stage 2
The total population starts to rise rapidly
Birth rates remain high as people continue to have large families
Death rates decrease as a result of improved diets, better healthcare, lower infant mortality and increased access to clean water
Stage 3
The total population continues to increase but the rate of growth begins to slow
Birth rate begins to fall rapidly due to increased birth control, family planning, increased cost of raising children and low infant mortality rate
The death rate is still decreasing but at a slower rate as improvements in medicine, hygiene, diet and water quality continue
Stage 4
The total population is high and is increasing slowly
The birth rate is low and fluctuating due to accessible birth control and the choice of having fewer children as well as delaying the age women start to have children
The death rate is low and fluctuates
Stage 5
The total population starts to slowly decline as the death rate exceeds the birth rate
The birth rate is low and slowly decreasing
The death rate is low and fluctuates
Worked Example
Explain why birth rates are still high in many LEDCs
[4 marks]
Identify the command word
The command word is 'explain'
The focus of the question is 'birth rates'
Take care to ensure that you focus on LEDCs (Less Economically Developed Countries)
Answer
Any two from the following with an explanation or any four from the following:
Lack of /don’t use/cannot afford contraception [1]
Lack of education about contraception/about problems of large families [1]
Children needed for work/to earn money/for farming; needed to look after elderly/no pensions [1]
Children needed to do household chores or example – fetching wood/water, cleaning the house, and looking after younger children [1]
Traditional views about large families/polygamy/families want a male child [1]
Religious/cultural views on contraception/abortion/family size [1]
High infant mortality/they have more babies so some will survive [1]
Early marriages/teenage pregnancy [1]
Lack of emancipation for women/women don’t have careers/lack of education for women [1]
No access to sexual (family) health clinics including abortion, etc. [1]
Population Change
All countries have different rates of population change
Population growth rates are currently highest in LEDCs such as Niger, Mali and Zambia
Population growth rates are lowest in MEDCs
In some MEDCs such as Italy and Japan, the population is decreasing as the number of deaths is higher than the number of births
These changes are dependent on three factors:
Fertility
Mortality
Migration
Fertility
As well as the birth rate, fertility can also be measured by the fertility rate
There are several factors affecting fertility which can be categorised as social, economic or political
Social
Infant mortality rate
When this is high the fertility rate also tends to be high as women have more children to ensure some survive to adulthood
Education
Higher levels of education lead to lower fertility rates as more women are in formal employment
Religion
Religious beliefs can influence how many children a woman has
Healthcare
The availability of contraception and family planning
Economic
Cost of having children
In MEDCs the cost of raising children may reduce the number of children a woman has
Lack of pensions
In LEDCs children are needed to care for elderly parents as there are no pensions. This increases the fertility rate
Contribution to family income
In LEDCs children often work to contribute to family income so more children are needed, increasing the fertility rate
Political
Pronatalist policies
Encourage women to have children and increase the fertility rate
Anti-natalist policies
Encourage women to have fewer children which decreases the fertility rate
Mortality
The death rate is affected by a range of factors:
Quality of, and access to, healthcare
Natural disasters - famine, drought
Diseases such as HIV/AIDS
War/conflict
Worked Example
Give three reasons why death rates vary from country to country
[3 Marks]
Answer
Any three from ideas such as (variations in the amount/quality of):
health care/hospital/clinics/medicines [1]
number of people per doctor/availability of doctors [1]
food supply/diet/famine/starvation [1]
water supply/quality/drought [1]
sanitation/hygiene [1]
diseases or examples/AIDS or HIV [1]
wars [1]
vaccinations [1]
education about healthcare/disease [1]
care for the elderly/pensions [1]
Case Study: Niger
In 1960 the population of Niger was 3.3 million
By 2021 the population had reached nearly 25 million
Niger has a population growth rate of 3.8%
This is the combination of a high birth rate and a rapidly decreasing death rate
High Birth Rate
The reasons for the high birth and fertility rates in Niger include:
The average age of marriage is 15.7 years meaning that women have more childbearing years
Low levels of education for women only 4 out of 10 girls finish primary school
High value is placed on large families
Only 12% of women use modern contraception
The death rate in Niger is decreasing falling from 29 per 1000 (1960) to 8 per 1000 (2020)
The decreasing death rate has been the result of:
increased urbanisation - which improves access to services such as healthcare and food
better food and clean water supply
improved access to healthcare
government policies to improve farming practices which have increased food supplies
free healthcare to pregnant women improving mother and baby survival rates
Impacts
The impacts include:
A highly dependent population of young people below the age of 15
Increased pressure on schools and health services
A younger population should increase economic growth but job and wealth distribution is uneven
Increased rural-urban migration to seek work
Development of illegal settlements on the edges of cities
Food shortages - an estimated 2.5 million people are suffering from food insecurity
Reducing population growth
In 2014 Niger adopted a framework to promote fertility reduction by:
Abolishing child marriage (marriage under the age of 18)
Improving access to education
Improved access to health services, contraception and family planning advice
Girls and women no longer need permission from parents/husbands to access contraception
Married and/or pregnant girls can still go to school to ensure they continue to receive an education
Case Study: Japan
In 2010 Japan's population reached 128.1 million people
By 2020 the population had decreased to 125.8 million people
Japan has a population change rate of -0.3%
This is a combination of a low birth rate and an ageing population
Low Birth Rate
The fertility rate in Japan is 1.36 births per woman, well below the fertility replacement rate of 2.1
The birth rate is 7.1 per 1000 people
The reasons for the low birth rate include:
Increasing numbers of women focussing on careers and delaying having children
Inability to afford buying/renting own home (70% of unmarried people live with their parents)
Declining marriage rate and increase in average age people get married (women 29.5 years, men 31 years)
Economic insecurity - jobs are not as secure
The expense of children is high due to childcare costs
Ageing population
The death rate has increased in Japan from a low of 6 per 1000 in 1982 to 11 per 1000 in 2020
In that time life expectancy has increased from an average of 77 years to 84.36 years
This means the increased death rate is not due to poorer healthcare, diet or standard of living but because the population is ageing
One-third of the population is over 60 years old and over 12% are over 75
Older people are more likely to become unwell and die
The more elderly the population, the higher the proportion of people who will die
Impacts
Shortage of workers
With increasing numbers of the population being retired, there are not enough workers to replace them
Fewer innovations
Closure of some services
Higher taxes
An ageing population puts more pressure on health service and pension payments
There is predicted to be a shortage of 380,000 workers for elderly care by 2025
Taxes have to be increased to pay for healthcare and pensions
School closures
Fewer children mean that schools and childcare facilities may close with the loss of jobs
An average of 450 schools close each year due to falling numbers
Economic stagnation
The economy does not grow due to a lack of workers and the closure of businesses and industry
The standard of living does not improve or falls
Solutions
Development of robots to help with elderly care such as in the Shin-tomi nursing home in Tokyo
Immigration laws were revised in 2018 to attract foreign workers and help with the worker shortage
The aim is to attract 340,000 new workers
The Angel Plan was a five-year plan in 1994 to increase the birth rate, followed by the New Angel Plan in 1999 and Plus One Policy in 2009 these all aimed to encourage people to have children by;
Improving the work environment to fit with family responsibilities
Better childcare services
Improved maternity and child health services
Better housing for families
Improved education facilities
Plus One Proposal is the most recent policy and aims to increase 'parent-friendly' working and the construction of 50,000 new daycare facilities
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