Causes & Consequences of Inflation (Cambridge (CIE) IGCSE Economics)

Revision Note

The Causes of Inflation

  • An increase in the general price level in an economy can be caused by demand pull inflation or cost push inflation

1. Demand pull inflation

  • Demand pull inflation is caused by excess demand in the economy

  • Total (aggregate) demand is the sum of all expenditure in the economy

    • rGDP = Consumption (C) + Investment (I) + Government spending (G) + Net Exports (X-M)

  • If any of the four components of rGDP increase, there will be an increase in the total demand in the economy leading to an increase in the general price level

  • Demand pull inflation has occurred 

An Example of Demand Pull Inflation

  • If the Central Bank lowers the base rate, there is likely to be increased borrowing by firms and consumers

    • This will result in an increase in consumption and investment which will increase the rGDP

    • It is likely to lead to a form of demand-pull inflation

 2. Cost push inflation

  • Cost push inflation is caused by increases in the costs of production in an economy

  • If any of the costs of production increase (labour, raw materials etc.), or if there is a fall in productivity, the total supply will decrease

  • With less supply, prices rise leading to an increase in the general price level

  • Cost push inflation has occurred 

An Example of Cost Push Inflation

  • Trade Unions negotiate higher wages for workers

  • The wage increases represent an increased cost of production for firms

  • With the inputs, firms now produce less and supply reduces leading to higher general price levels

  • Cost push inflation has occurred

The Consequences of Inflation


The Impact of Inflation on Different Stakeholders

Firms

Consumers

Government

Workers

  • Uncertainty: Rapid price changes create uncertainty and delay investment

  • Menu change costs: Price changes force firms to change their menu prices too and this can be expensive

  • Lenders: Financial firms that lend money are worse off as the money lent out is now worth less than before

  • Purchasing Power: Decrease in purchasing power worsens their quality of life

  • Savings: There is a decrease in the real value of savings (as money will be worth less in real terms)

  • Real Income: There is a fall in real income for those on fixed incomes/pension

  • Borrowers: anyone who borrows money benefits as the repayments are worth less than when the money was originally borrowed

  • International Competitiveness: Inflation erodes international competitiveness of export industries as their products now look relatively more expensive to foreigners

  • Trade-offs: There are  involved in tackling inflation e.g. reducing inflation may increase unemployment and/or reduce economic growth

  • Government Debt: inflation erodes the value of government debt as the repayments are worth less than when the money was originally borrowed

  • Higher Wages: Workers demand higher wages to compensate for reduced purchasing power

  • Morale: If wage increases ≠ inflation, motivation and productivity may fall as workers do not receive the same real benefit for the work they are doing

Examiner Tip

Remember, governments want some inflation - usually 2-3% as this is a sign of economic growth. However, inflation in excess of that is harmful in many of the ways described above.

When evaluating inflation a considerable positive for many governments is the fact that it erodes the value of government debt. This may be difficult to grasp, but if a government has a lot of debt, it may actually be happy to let inflation run at a higher level for a period of time. The trade-off is that everyone in the economy who is not a 'borrower' is worse off and if inflation is high, it can lead to social unrest and economic instability.

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