UK Population (OCR GCSE Geography B)

Population Trends

• At present the population of the United Kingdom stands at 67.3 million people

• Over the last 50 years, the UK's population has grown by nearly 20% (10 million people)

• By 2030 it is expected to reach 70 million people

• Growth is due to 2 processes:

  • Natural increase: where births exceed deaths

  • Net migration: where in-migration exceeds out-migration

• Migration can be split into 2 types:

  • Internal or national migration

  • International or external migration

What is migration?

• Migration is the movement of people across an official boundary, either internationally or nationally, with the intention of creating a permanent place of residence

• The UN defines the term 'permanent' as a change of residence for more than 1 year

Impact of national migration on the UK

• Migration has shaped the UK and has impacted it economically, culturally, politically and environmentally 

• The UK's economic development was the largest impact on the population density

• Prior to the 18th century, the majority of UK residents lived in rural areas, relying on agriculture as their main form of employment

• During the 19th century, the Industrial Revolution saw a rapid rise in the number of people concentrated in cities as they migrated from the rural regions seeking employment in the better-paying secondary sector 

• Now the UK is in the post-industrial phase, and the population is spread around the cities, with urban sprawl a common feature 

• This internal migration has led to the population density of the modern UK, where the majority of people live in urban areas

Impacts of international migration on the UK

• The UK has always experienced waves of migrants

  • During the 1850s Irish famine

  • In the 1950s from the West Indies, seeking employment

  • From Eastern Europe after EU enlargement and removal of barriers

  • Refugees from Syria and Ukraine etc.

• Out of the 59.6 million usual residents in England and Wales in 2021, 49.6 million (83.2%) were born in the UK and 10.0 million (16.8%) were born outside the UK. This means that about one in six people in England and Wales were born outside the UK - ONS 2021 census - International migration, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

• India is still the most popular country of origin, with significant migration from Pakistan, Ireland and Poland

Immigration and age structure

• Most immigrants are young with young families of their own

• This impacts the UK age structure (source: ONS 2022):

• In 2021, 28.8% of live births were to non-UK-born women; a decrease from 29.3% in 2020 

• The total fertility rate (TFR) increased for UK-born women to 1.54 children per woman; the TFR for non-UK-born women remained at 2.03 children per woman

• In 2021, the most common country of birth for non-UK-born fathers was Pakistan; and Romania was the most common country of birth for non-UK-born mothers

• The UK is becoming an ageing population 

UK's changing age structure

• The demographic transition model (DTM) illustrates the five generalised stages of population change that countries pass through as they develop

• The graph is based on the changes that took place in western countries such as the UK

• It shows how birth and death rates change over time and how this affects the overall population as the country develops 

• The gap between the birth rate and death rate is called natural change

The UK and the DTM

• At this time it is unclear if the UK has entered Stage 5 as this is unsustainable and not desirable

• Japan and Berlin have entered Stage 5 and are struggling to find enough people to look after their young and old dependents

Ageing Population

• Approximately 18% of the UK population are over 65

• The distribution of older people is higher in coastal areas, especially in East and South-west of England

• The UK's south coast is a popular retirement area due to warmer than average UK temperatures

• However, it is lower in Northern Ireland and Scotland and generally in big cities

• Urban core areas have the youngest average age 

  • In major conurbations the average age is 37.8 years 

  • In most remote rural areas the average age is 45.9 years

Population Structure & Ethnic Diversity

Ethnic diversity in the UK

• In the UK,18% of the population belongs to a black, Asian, mixed or other ethnic group (2021 Census data), an increase from 13.8% in 2011

• The city of Bristol is increasingly diverse

  • In 2011 15% of the population was from an ethnic minority group

  • By the 2021 Census, this had increased to 28.4% of the population 

    • It ranged from 17.8% in South Bristol to 52.6% in the Inner-City sub-locality

  • The change has been driven by white non-British (Polish), Black African (Somalian) and Asian (Indian) people

  • Bristol, hosts at least 45 religions, with 187 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken

  • Within this diversity, there is a mix of cultures and this has resulted in Bristol's entertainment and hospitality industries becoming world famous 

  • The food industry is wide and varied, with the Bristol community becoming very accepting of new cultures

  • The St Paul's Carnival is hosted to integrate and celebrate Bristol's ethnic diversity and brings visitors from all over the country, boosting Bristol's economy