Cognitive Biases: Illusory Correlation
What is cognitive bias?
- A cognitive bias is a faulty or distorted way of perceiving or understanding the world
- A cognitive bias is a kind of heuristic i.e. a short-cut way of thinking which minimises cognitive effort and energy and maximises quick, easy solutions to problems and to decision-making
- Cognitive biases are not the same as prejudice or discrimination, but it could be argued that they contribute to the formation of stereotypes and to the establishment and perpetuation of limited, sometimes harmful, problematic attitudes
- Cognitive biases include (but are not limited to):
- illusory correlation;
- confirmation bias;
- the availability heuristic;
- anchoring bias;
- the just-world hypothesis (which is covered in a separate Cognitive Bias Revision Note in the Reliability of Cognitive Processes)
- A cognitive bias has the characteristics of System 1 thinking (see the Revision Note on Thinking & Decision-Making: the Dual Process Model included in Cognitive Processing) in that it is based on intuitive, automatic thinking which requires little or no analysis or reflection
What is Illusory Correlation?
- Illusory Correlation (IC) is a cognitive bias which occurs when people assume that there is a relationship between two variables when in fact this relationship does not exist or is based on stereotypical assumptions which lack tangible evidence
- Some examples of everyday ICs are:
- Blondes have more fun (the IC is the linking of hair colour and enjoyment of life);
- Italians are highly excitable (the IC involves generalising a specific behaviour to a whole nation);
- A gambler who believes that wearing their ‘lucky shirt’ will help them to win at the roulette table (the IC is the belief that arbitrary factors such as clothing choice can have any influence over the outcome at a gambling game)
- All ICs are not necessarily negative or harmful e.g. My right knee is aching which means that rain is on the way, but some ICs can be at the root of bigoted behaviour such as racism, sexism, homophobia etc.
- One explanation for the development of ICs is the cognitive miser explanation: the world is a complex, busy place and we are bombarded on a daily basis with a multitude of messages and information so using ICs to understand the world means that less cognitive energy needs to be expended than if one were to fully focus on the subtle and varied explanations for specific behaviours/types of people
A gambler may use illusory correlations in the mistaken belief that this will increase their winnings e.g. always going to the same ‘lucky’ croupier’s table
Which research studies investigate illusory correlation?
- Hamilton & Gifford (1976) – illusory correlation favours the majority rather than the minority in terms of group size
Hamilton & Gifford (1976) is available as a separate Key Study – just navigate the Reliability of Cognitive Processes section of this topic to find it (Two Key Studies of Cognitive Biases)
This study can also be found as part of the Sociological Approach topic Formation of Stereotypes which you can find as a separate Revision Note on this site
Examiner Tip
Illusory correlation and Hamilton & Gifford’s (1976) study is also relevant to the Sociological Approach – The Individual & the Group – Formation of Stereotypes so you can ‘double up’ this study for use with two separate exam questions. BUT if you use this study twice on the same exam, please be sure to place the emphasis of your response on the cognitive bias if you are answering a Cognitive Approach question or on the formation of stereotypes if you are answering a Sociocultural Approach question
Worked example
SAQ (Short answer question): 9 marks
Explain one theory of one cognitive bias using one relevant study. [9]
The command term ‘Explain’ requires you to give good detail and some depth of both the theory and the supporting study.
Have a look at this paragraph for an example of how to use this command term for this SAQ:
Hamilton and Gifford (1976) use the theory of illusory correlation to explain how stereotypes develop. Illusory correlation is when two events occur simultaneously, and incorrect inference is drawn from this co-occurrence, particularly if the event or behaviour is notable or unusual. They argued that negative behaviours are relatively rare, and that people from minority groups are also relatively rare (because, logically, there are not as many of them as there are of the majority group), so when one sees a minority person performing a negative act, it is more memorable than when one sees a person from a majority group performing the same act.
