Cognitive Biases: Illusory Correlation (DP IB Psychology)

Cognitive Biases: Illusory Correlation

What is cognitive bias?

• A cognitive bias is a faulty or distorted way of perceiving or understanding the world

• A cognitive bias is a kind of heuristic i.e. a short-cut way of thinking which minimises cognitive effort and energy and maximises quick, easy solutions to problems and to decision-making

• Cognitive biases are not the same as prejudice or discrimination, but it could be argued that they contribute to the formation of stereotypes and to the establishment and perpetuation of limited, sometimes harmful, problematic attitudes

• Cognitive biases include (but are not limited to):

  • illusory correlation;

  • confirmation bias;

  • the availability heuristic;

  • anchoring bias;

  • the just-world hypothesis (which is covered in a separate Cognitive Bias Revision Note in the Reliability of Cognitive Processes)

• A cognitive bias has the characteristics of System 1 thinking (see the Revision Note on Thinking & Decision-Making: the Dual Process Model included in Cognitive Processing) in that it is based on intuitive, automatic thinking which requires little or no analysis or reflection

What is Illusory Correlation?

• Illusory Correlation (IC) is a cognitive bias which occurs when people assume that there is a relationship between two variables when in fact this relationship does not exist or is based on stereotypical assumptions which lack tangible evidence

• Some examples of everyday ICs are:

• Blondes have more fun (the IC is the linking of hair colour and enjoyment of life); 

• Italians are highly excitable (the IC involves generalising a specific behaviour to a whole nation);

• A gambler who believes that wearing their ‘lucky shirt’ will help them to win at the roulette table (the IC is the belief that arbitrary factors such as clothing choice can have any influence over the outcome at a gambling game)

• All ICs are not necessarily negative or harmful e.g. My right knee is aching which means that rain is on the way, but some ICs can be at the root of bigoted behaviour such as racism, sexism, homophobia etc.

• One explanation for the development of ICs is the cognitive miser explanation: the world is a complex, busy place and we are bombarded on a daily basis with a multitude of messages and information so using ICs to understand the world means that less cognitive energy needs to be expended than if one were to fully focus on the subtle and varied explanations for specific behaviours/types of people

A gambler may use illusory correlations in the mistaken belief that this will increase their winnings e.g. always going to the same ‘lucky’ croupier’s table

Which research studies investigate illusory correlation?

• Hamilton & Gifford (1976) – illusory correlation favours the majority rather than the minority in terms of group size

Hamilton & Gifford (1976) is available as a separate Key Study – just navigate the Reliability of Cognitive Processes section of this topic to find it (Two Key Studies of Cognitive Biases)

This study can also be found as part of the Sociological Approach topic Formation of Stereotypes which you can find as a separate Revision Note on this site