Prevalence Rates of Smoking (DP IB Psychology)

Prevalence of smoking worldwide

• Prevalence is the measure of the proportion of a population who engage in a specific behaviour e.g. smoking

• Prevalence may be reported as a percentage (5%, or 5 people out of 100), or as the number of cases per 10,000 or 100,000 people

• There are several ways to measure and report prevalence depending on the timeframe of the estimate:

  • Point prevalence is the proportion of a population presenting with the characteristic/behaviour at a specific point in time

  • Period prevalence is the proportion of a population presenting with the characteristic/behaviour at any point during a given time period, e.g. the past twelve months 

  • Lifetime prevalence is the proportion of a population who, at some point in their life has presented with the characteristic/behaviour

• The World Health Organisation (WHO, 2024) collects data on tobacco use: their latest figures show:

  • in 2022, 20.9% of the world’s population over 15 years old smoked cigarettes

  • around 80% of the 1.25 billion tobacco users worldwide live in low- and middle-income countries

  • the worldwide prevalence of smoking is decreasing each year, except in a few countries (e.g., Egypt, Jordan and Indonesia) where rates of male smokers are still rising (Reuters, 2024)

Global trends in prevalence of tobacco use among people aged 15 years and older, by sex, 2000–2030 (estimates to 2020, projections to 2030)

Evaluation of prevalence data on tobacco use

Strengths

• Publishing regular prevalence figures allows governments to assess whether they are meeting health targets

• Prevalence data from a reputable source like the WHO is important for educational campaigns 

Limitations

• The worldwide data can hide regional trends which need to be uncovered from the statistics

• The reports that are published are often very large and can be difficult to interpret, limiting the use of the data to those who have the time and skills for the task

Prevalence of smoking: age & gender

Gender

• 34.4% of men and 7.4% of women used tobacco in 2022 (WHO, 2024)

• In 2000, around one in six women (16.3%) aged 15 years and older were tobacco users 

• In 2000, three times as many men as women used tobacco 

• By 2022 the rate for males was more than four times the rate for females 

• This increased ratio of males to females using tobacco reflects the faster decline in prevalence among females 

• The gap between male and female tobacco use is expected to increase further to  five times (as many males as females) by 2030 

• This worldwide trend of women reducing their tobacco use does not account for regional variations

• In 2000, the highest tobacco use prevalence among females was 33% in the South-East Asia Region, but this had reduced to 10% in 2022 

• In 2022, the highest prevalence among females is in the European Region (18%) and women in Europe are not stopping smoking as quickly as those in Asia 

Age

• Approximately 13% of 15-23 year-olds and 13% of those over 85 years old use tobacco 

• Prevalence rates for other age groups vary between 18% and 28%

• Most tobacco users are aged between 45 and 54 years old

• After the age of 54, the prevalence rate for tobacco use declines 

• As tobacco users, especially cigarette smokers, get older they may be giving up due to the development of health problems e.g. breathing difficulties, lung and heart disease

Only a very small percentage of older women smoke

Evaluation of prevalence data on tobacco use by age and gender

Strengths

• Gathering data on prevalence rates by age and gender allows for targeted health campaigns for specific groups, such as young males aged 15-24 years old, who are five times more likely to smoke than females of the same age

• Data on tobacco use by gender allows anomalies, like the slower rate of quitting by women in Europe, to be further investigated

Limitations

• Quantitative data does not reveal why trends happen; therefore more qualitative investigation is needed

• Prevalence data on tobacco use by age and gender does not consider child smokers nor those who are passive smokers

Research which investigates prevalence rates of smoking

• Valente et al. (2005) found that popular middle-school children were more likely to smoke

• Strassman et al. (2022) found that the nationwide indoor smoking ban in Denmark from 2007 had reduced smoking prevalence and improved lung function

Both Valente et al. (2005) and Strassman et al. (2022) are available as ‘Two Key Studies of Prevalence Rates of Smoking’ – just navigate to the next section of the Prevalence Rates of Smoking topic.