Urban Growth Projections (SL IB Geography)

• By 2050, it is estimated that 68% of the world's population will live in cities
  • This has more than doubled since 1960, when it was 33%
• The countries with the highest proportion of people living in urban areas are mainly HICs, with many countries having over 80% of people living in urban areas
• Middle-income countries have between 40% and 70% of people living in rural areas 
  • The proportion of people living in urban areas in these countries is increasing at the fastest rate

Percentage of people living in urban areas in countries at different levels of development

Map showing the percentage of people living in urban areas

Future trends

• It is predicted that Asia will experience the largest growth in urban population
• Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa will experience increased birth rates and rural-urban migration leading to rapid urban growth 
  • Lagos, Nigeria, is already the eighth fastest-growing city in the world
• The rate of growth of cities in North America and Europe will slow

• Globally, rural-urban migration accounts for 40% of urban growth
• Rural-urban migration happens in all countries but the greatest levels of rural-urban migration are occurring in MICs and LICs
  • In these countries, approximately 60% of urban growth is due to rural-urban migration
• People are migrating to urban areas due to pull factors, including:
  • More and better jobs
  • Educational opportunities
  • Better access to healthcare
• The impacts of rural-urban migration include:
  • Declining population in rural areas
  • Economic growth in urban areas
  • Increased pressure on housing and services in urban areas

Rural-urban migration in Kenya

• More than 250 000 people a year move from rural Kenya to towns and cities like Nairobi
• Most migrants are young people, often men

Causes of Rural-Urban Migration

• Rural-urban migration in Kenya has a number of causes:
  • Loss of land: commercial farms taking over best farmland
  • Low productivity of land due to soil erosion and desertification
  • Poor access to healthcare and education services
  • Increasing frequency of drought
  • Lack of clean water

Impacts of Rural-Urban Migration

• Ageing populations in rural areas
• Lack of skills
• Reduced productivity as the elderly and children are not able to farm as effectively
• Birth rates decline 
• Rural area development falls further behind urban areas

• Population growth in LIC and MIC cities is rapid, particularly in Asia and Africa
• Rural-urban migration is dominated by younger age groups, which leads to
  • High birth rates
  • Pressure on jobs and services
  • A reduced dependency ratio
• In Lagos, Nigeria the largest age groups are:
  • Young children age 0 to 4 years 
  • Young adults age 20 to 29 years
• The rate of population growth in HIC cities is slowing
• This leads to:
  • Lower birth rates
  • A higher dependency ratio
• In Tokyo, Japan the largest age groups are:
  • Older adults between 45 and 50