Hazard & Disaster Trends (DP IB Geography)

Hazard & Disaster Trends & Future Projections

Global disaster trends

• The number of recorded disasters has increased significantly since 1960

• There are a number of reasons for this, including:

  • Increased population – the world's population has grown from 3 billion to over 8 billion since 1960:

    • This means more people are likely to be impacted by any hazard event

    • Increased population density in urban and coastal areas increases the vulnerable population

  • Increased monitoring and reporting means more hazard events are recorded

• Most of the increase has been the result of floods and extreme weather

Recorded global disasters 1900–2022

Geophysical hazard trends 

• The number of tectonic disasters has fluctuated since 1960 but has generally remained steady

• The slight increase in the number of earthquake disasters does not mean there have been more earthquakes or higher magnitude earthquakes. It results from:

  • Greater urbanisation in seismic zones, which has led to higher population densities and increased building density

  • Population growth, which means more people are living in earthquake-prone regions

  • Population growth being focussed in some of the least developed countries, which are also the most vulnerable due to:

    • Poor building design and construction

    • Poverty

    • Lower levels of education

    • Poor governance

Global tectonic disasters 1900–2022

Global tectonic disasters 1900–2022

• The number of deaths from tectonic hazards fluctuates depending on a range of factors, including:

  • Magnitude

  • Level of development

  • Location

Deaths resulting from tectonic activity

                                                  1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010  2020

• The impact of a mega-disaster such as the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami may skew the overall trend because it leads to so many deaths

• Volcanic eruptions are less frequent than earthquakes and deaths from eruptions are now rare due to improved monitoring, exclusion zones and evacuation plans