Urban Growth Projections (DP IB Geography)

Regional Patterns of Urban Growth

• By 2050, it is estimated that 68% of the world's population will live in cities

  • This has more than doubled since 1960, when it was 33%

• The countries with the highest proportion of people living in urban areas are mainly HICs, with many countries having over 80% of people living in urban areas

• Middle-income countries have between 40% and 70% of people living in rural areas 

  • The proportion of people living in urban areas in these countries is increasing at the fastest rate

Future trends

• It is predicted that Asia will experience the largest growth in urban population

• Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa will experience increased birth rates and rural-urban migration leading to rapid urban growth 

  • Lagos, Nigeria, is already the eighth fastest-growing city in the world

• The rate of growth of cities in North America and Europe will slow

Trends of Rural-Urban Migration

• Globally, rural-urban migration accounts for 40% of urban growth

• Rural-urban migration happens in all countries but the greatest levels of rural-urban migration are occurring in MICs and LICs

  • In these countries, approximately 60% of urban growth is due to rural-urban migration

• People are migrating to urban areas due to pull factors, including:

  • More and better jobs

  • Educational opportunities

  • Better access to healthcare

• The impacts of rural-urban migration include:

  • Declining population in rural areas

  • Economic growth in urban areas

  • Increased pressure on housing and services in urban areas

Rural-urban migration in Kenya

• More than 250 000 people a year move from rural Kenya to towns and cities like Nairobi

• Most migrants are young people, often men

Causes of Rural-Urban Migration

• Rural-urban migration in Kenya has a number of causes:

  • Loss of land: commercial farms taking over best farmland

  • Low productivity of land due to soil erosion and desertification

  • Poor access to healthcare and education services

  • Increasing frequency of drought

  • Lack of clean water

Impacts of Rural-Urban Migration

• Ageing populations in rural areas

• Lack of skills

• Reduced productivity as the elderly and children are not able to farm as effectively

• Birth rates decline 

• Rural area development falls further behind urban areas

Changing Population Sizes & Structures

• Population growth in LIC and MIC cities is rapid, particularly in Asia and Africa

• Rural-urban migration is dominated by younger age groups, which leads to

  • High birth rates

  • Pressure on jobs and services

  • A reduced dependency ratio

• In Lagos, Nigeria the largest age groups are:

  • Young children age 0 to 4 years 

  • Young adults age 20 to 29 years

• The rate of population growth in HIC cities is slowing

• This leads to:

  • Lower birth rates

  • A higher dependency ratio

• In Tokyo, Japan the largest age groups are:

  • Older adults between 45 and 50