Population Policies (DP IB Geography)

Ageing Populations

• Ageing populations have multiple impacts:

  • Increase costs on residential accommodation, social services, health care, and pensions

  • Services such as schools, sports centres, etc. decline as they are not used by older residents

  • Family budgets can increase if looking after an aged relative

  • There is an increase in the dependency ratio because of a smaller working population

  • A smaller workforce means less tax paid to the government leading to less money available to the younger population for education, transport, social amenities etc. 

• Ageing populations can also present opportunities such as:

  • Lower costs on policing as crime rates reduce

  • New market/business opportunities

    • In HICs, the elderly are an important market, known as the 'grey economy'

    • Firms now cater to this market through holidays (SAGA), mobility aids, health care workers etc. 

  • Increased opportunities for volunteering and community activism as elderly people have experience 

  • Longer working lives and contribution to society

  • More time can be spent with friends and family and providing care for family members

    • In Japan and South Africa, there is a 'granny culture', where the elderly look after their grandchildren, allowing both parents to work

Japan's 'super-aged' population 

• More than 1 in 10 people in Japan are now aged 80+, and there are approximately 80 000 centenarians (100+ years)

• This makes Japan the country with the world's oldest population

• By 2036, people 65+ years will represent 33% of the population

• Japan has a low birth rate and struggles to provide for its ageing population

• In 2022, almost half of Japanese firms relied on workers aged 70+

• Farmers are also ageing and Japan's farming population is shrinking and the agricultural sector faces a severe labour shortage

• A shrinking child population is forcing local governments around Japan to close its schools

• The decrease in the size of the youth population reduces competition among young people

Japan's policies

• The government has tried to boost its birth rates

• But, with the cost of living, and long working hours, there has been little success

• The pandemic only worsened the issues, leading to more deaths, and fewer marriages and births

• Japan created the 'Angel Plan' aimed to help couples raise their children by:

  • Increasing policies and programmes for paid parental leave, childcare services and child allowances

  • In 2019, free preschool education and day-care for children aged 3-5 was introduced 

  • In 2020, the government increased support by:

    • Reduces the cost of fertility treatment

    • Raised child allowances

    • Expanded free higher education

    • Introduced higher allowances for paternity leave - at present Japan has a generous paid parental leave of up to 24 months

  • But so far, these policies have not improved Japan's low fertility rate of 1.36 births per woman

• Improve immigration

  • Japan has a strict immigration policy 

  • Migrants are considered temporary 'guest workers' who will eventually return home

  • Many Japanese firms resist hiring foreign workers 

  • In 2018, new legislation allowed foreign workers with vocational skills to stay in the country for up to 5 years, but could not bring their families

  • If the foreign worker had advanced skills, then they were allowed to bring their families and live in the country indefinitely 

    • In June 2023, just 2.4% of the total Japanese population were foreign residents (3.2 million people)

    • This also applies to refugees, where just 202 people were granted refugee status out of 3,772 people who applied in 2022

• Create an 'age-free' society

  • Japan is looking at creating an 'age-free society' where people are not categorised by their age, but by their ability and motivation to work

  • They are encouraging employers to:

    • Keep their employees up to the age of 70 or longer

    • Hire older people

    • Extent their retirement age

    • Increase opportunities for older people

Pro-natalist Policies

• Pro-natalist policies are adopted when a country suffers from a declining and ageing population

• A pro-natalist policy is:

• Pro-natalist policies improve the replacement level of a country's population where it has fallen below the recommended 2.1 children per woman

• Pro-natalist policies are associated with HICs because:

  • They need financial and developmental support to be successful

  • LICs tend to have a youthful population with few aged people

• The biggest issue with the pro-natalist policy is the cost to the government

Russia's pro-natalist policy

• Russia has a low fertility rate of 1.5 births per woman due to:

  • Poor reproductive healthcare services

  • A lack of access to contraceptives

  • A high divorce rate

  • An ageing population

  • High rates of abortion

  • Women choosing to have less children

• First pro-natalist policy was in 1936 where families were rewarded for having 3 or more children

• The State increased its help to pregnant women, large families and single mothers

• Abortion was a criminal offence

• Childless families were penalised with a tax of 6.6% on the family's income (until 1990)

• In 1981, Russia reduced the childbearing age and closed contraceptive factories

• Fertility rates did not increase, but the rate of illegal abortions did 

• By 2006, the fertility rate was just 1.3 births per woman and further measures were introduced:

  • Women with large families were called 'Hero Mothers' and were given medals and gifts

  • Offered increased child benefits and longer maternity leave for women

  • If women gave up work they were offered 40% of what they had previously earned 

  • Payments of 250,000 Russian Roubles (approx. US$9,200) were made to women who give birth to a second/third child, which could be used for domestic or educational purposes

• Another plan offered an all-expense-paid summer camp for young adults, complete with private tents and no condoms

• The government also considered the re-introduction of the childless tax

• 'Day of Conception' September 12 2006 Putin announced that 'citizens are relieved of work and are encouraged to use their afternoons to copulate and if a child is born on June 12th 2007, the couple will receive cars, TVs and other prizes'

• The results were:

  • Birth rates rose by 4.5% from 1,479,600 (2006) to 1,610,000 in 2007 

  • By 2011 the fertility rate was 1.54, a 21% increase

  • The increase in 2nd births was 40% and 60% for a third child

• However, these increases were short-lived and the effects of the policies have worn-off

• Women's intentions to have another child haven't happened

Anti-natalist Policies

• The aim of anti-natalist policies is to reduce pressure on resources and improve the quality of life for the whole population

• These are policies introduced to reduce the birth rate

• Policies can be law - as in China - or they can be voluntary 

China's policy

• The Great Leap Forward (1958-1961) was a 5 year economic plan to improve the prosperity of China through:

  • Widespread industrialisation

  • agricultural collectivism

  • Families were rewarded by the number of workers they had, encouraging couples to have larger families 

  • But it resulted in the deaths of millions of Chinese due to famine 

• The rapidly increasing population resulted in limited resources, such as food, housing, education and healthcare 

• A lack of jobs meant many poor people could not afford to pay taxes, which the government needed to create facilities for the growing population

• By the early 1970s, China was once again heading into a famine, unless the government brought changes

• China's one-child policy came into effect in 1979 and ended in 2016, although it was relaxed in 1999

• It stated that:

  • Couples must not marry until their late 20s

  • Can only have one successful pregnancy

  • Must be sterilised after the first child or abort any future pregnancies

  • Would receive a 5-10% salary rise for limiting their family to one child

  • Increased access to contraceptives and family planning

  • Better employment opportunities for one-child families

  • Abortion to be legalised

• The punishments for disobeying the rules were:

  • A 10% salary cut

  • A fine so large that it would bankrupt most households

  • The family would have to pay for the education of both children and health care for all the family

  • Second children born abroad were not penalised, but could not become Chinese citizens

• The policy was stricter in urban areas

• Exceptions were:

  • Ethnic minorities were allowed two children

  • Rural families were allowed two children particularly if the first was a girl

  • Urban couples could have a second child, but only if both parents were single children

  • Multiple births (twins etc.) were not penalised and many women took fertility drugs to have multiple births

• The policy is estimated to have reduced population growth, however, it has also created issues

• The biggest impacts of the policy have been:

  • A shrinking labour force - working dependency of 1.6 adults,

  • An ageing population of nearly 450 million people aged 60+ 

  • A gender imbalance of 118 males to 100 females - roughly 30 million more men struggling to find a wife