Global & Regional Trends (DP IB Geography)

Family Size

• Family size is linked with economic development; larger families tend to be found in LICs

• The global average household size has declined from 4.9 persons in 1960 to 3.45 in 2023 and is predicted to reach 2.5 by 2050

• The country with the largest household size is Senegal, Africa, with an average of 10 family members

• Pakistan, Nigeria and India also have large families with an average of between 5-9 persons

• Smaller families are common across Europe with 2.3 persons and North America with 2.6 persons 

• The following factors influence household size:

  • Access to healthcare, and contraception

  • An increase in women's education and participation in the workforce

  • Increased life expectancy of children, reducing the need to have more children

  • Urbanisation and lack of space for large families

  • Cultural and societal norms, where family size is due to social expectations such as religious and cultural beliefs and children are seen as economic assets to contribute to family income and status

  • Government policy restricting or encouraging family size

Sex Ratios

• The sex ratio is often referred to as the gender ratio

• It is the ratio between the number of males and females in a given society

• The ratio is dynamic and is affected by:

  • Biological factors - usually there are higher numbers of males born; however, male mortality is typically higher

  • Cultural and social factors - some societies have a preference for male offspring

    • This may lead to sex-selective abortions

  • Technological factors- improvements in fertility treatments and selective gender choices

  • Economic factors - lineage within a family continues with a son; dowries are an expense with the transfer of property or money from the bride to the groom's family

  • Differences in mortality rates and life expectancy

    • Women live longer than men

    • Genetically, males are susceptible to higher mortality rates. Studies found that during the Covid-19 pandemic, more males died than females from the virus

• In turn, the sex ratio impacts society, demographics, and the economy of a country

Global differences

• In 2021 the total share of women in the world stood at 49%

• Although most births are male, many countries have a female dominant population between 49-51%

• However, countries with the largest populations (China and India) have a male dominant society, thereby changing global gender ratio

• Some countries do not register female births

• Middle East countries have more males than females, mostly due to inward migration of male workers to the region 

  • Oman has 3:1 ratio

  • UAE has almost 4:1

• In Mexico, the percentage of the female population is 51.08% compared to 48.92% of the male population due to the outward migration of males to support their families 

• Also, the ratio varies from place to place

  • Employment opportunities may be more suitable to one gender or another, for example:

    • Alaska has numerous tough, physical jobs such as lumberjack, oil and gas drilling, and crab fishing. This is the reason the country has the highest male/female sex ratio

• Gender inequality exposes females to poor health, and puts them at higher risk of death, including complications pre and post-pregnancy and childbirth

• Despite this, as a country's population ages, it is more likely to have a female majority 

• Countries from the former Soviet Union have been predominantly female since World War II when millions of men died in battle

• By 2021, these countries accounted for six of the 10 nations with the highest ratio of females to males

• According to the UN:

Global sex ratio 

Importance of the sex ratio 

• Countries which lack males or females, have difficulty maintaining a birth rate which matches or exceeds its death rate

• This creates a declining population with fewer male workers entering the workforce

• This leads to a stagnant or shrinking economy and reduced GDP

• An unbalanced sex ratio affects crime rates, marital stability, and a woman's decisions to either focus on a career or start a family 

Issues with the sex ratio

• Sex ratio varies with age and demographic group and this is not shown in the final ratio

  • Males outnumber females at birth but have a higher mortality rate

  • Therefore, by the age of 50+, women typically outnumber men

• The ratio may or may not include children or non-permanent residents such as students and temporary workers

Ageing

• Also known as a greying population, every country has seen a growth in size and percentage of older persons in their population

• In 2020, the number of people aged 60+ years outnumbered children younger than 5 years

• In 2022, almost 10% of the world’s population (771 million people) were aged 65+ years 

• Between 2015 and 2050, the world's population over 60 years will nearly double from 12% to 22%

• By 2050, two-thirds of the world’s population over 60 years will live in low- and middle-income countries

• Places with a high elderly population in Japan (30%), Italy (24%), and Finland (23%)

• Countries such as Qatar, Uganda, and Afghanistan have just 2% of their population aged 65+ years

Reasons for an ageing/greying population

• Globally, mortality and fertility rates have decreased steadily over the last 50 years

• Immigration usually offsets the effects of a country’s ageing population as immigrants are usually younger

• But this is a short-term view, as immigrants also get older

• Immigrants from countries with traditionally high family numbers (India etc.) will, with each generation, reduce the number of children they have as they begin to integrate within their adopted country

  • 2nd and 3rd generation Indian migrants to the UK now have an average of 2.4 children compared to 4.4 within India

• Also, as population ageing and falling fertility rates are a global occurrence, future migrant profiles may change