Conflict Over Internationally Shared Water Resource (DP IB Geography)

Revision Note

Water Resources & Conflict

  • Across the world, 17 countries face ‘extremely high’ levels of water stress 

  • Over 2 billion people live in countries with high water stress

  • This can lead to conflict over water resources 

Tigris Euphrates River conflict

  • The Tigris Euphrates River conflict has been an ongoing issue since the 1960s

  • The Euphrates river source can be found in Türkiye and flows through Northern Syria and Iraq

  • Turkey, Iraq and Syria are all countries facing high water stress

Map of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers 

Map highlighting Türkiye, Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, and surrounding areas. It shows the Euphrates and Tigris rivers flowing through these countries.
Map showing the Tigris and Euphrates rivers
  • The Euphrates River is 2800 km long

  • The Tigris River is the second largest river in Western Asia

  • The Tigris River is surrounded by four countries:

    • Türkiye

    • Syria

    • Iraq

    • Iran

  • The confluence of the two rivers is in the town of Al-Qurnah in the south-eastern area of Iraq

  • Both rivers originate in Türkiye flowing south-east to the mouth of the rivers is the Persian Gulf

  • It is estimated that over 60 million people rely on the Euphrates River

  • In 1975, a potential armed conflict occurred between Syria and Türkiye over water usage

Why is there a conflict?

  • Türkiye relies heavily on energy imports, which has led them to focus on hydropower

  • The creation of the Llisu dam on the Tigris River by Türkiye triggered geopolitical tensions with Iraq and Syria

    • Iraq and Syria unsuccessfully used international legal and diplomatic means to prevent construction of the dam

  • Türkiye created the Southeastern Anatolian Dam project (GAP) and hydroelectric plants along both major rivers

  • It is estimated that the dam projects constructed by Türkiye have reduced Iraq’s water supply by 80% since 1975

  • The Llisu dam is set to reduce the Tigris water flow into Iraq by 56%

  • Between 2020-21 the region experienced its second-lowest rainfall season in 40 years

  • Türkiye has withheld water along the Euphrates

How has climate change intensified the conflict? 

  • The river basin is one of the world’s most vulnerable watersheds

  • Temperatures in the region are increasing twice as fast as global averages 

  • Surface evaporation will place further pressure on the rivers and those that use them

  • The Tigris had a reduced flow of 29% and the Euphrates 73% in 2021

  • There is a possibility that the flows of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers will reduce by 30% and 60% respectively, by the end of the century

  • Tishrin Dam will only be used for drinking water and not for agriculture in 2023 because Syria has also experienced below-average precipitation

Role of stakeholders in finding resolutions 

  • The Llisu dam was completed in May 2020 and since then Iraq has requested a minimum month-to-month flow from Türkiye

  • The Iraqi government announced their intention to work on diplomacy with Syria and Türkiye as well as build a future dam to support their own water needs 

  • Government changes in Türkiye have meant that they have adopted an approach of ‘zero problems’ with neighbouring countries to reduce possible conflict

  • Türkiye’s water legislation policies have been changed to a more diplomatic style of inclusivity due to its proposal to join the European Union

  • Syria has been adopting a National Drought Strategy to identify drought-prone areas and providing drought reports in both Arabic and English

  • There are no official agreements between the countries that rely on the water basin

Future possibilities 

  • A research paper produced by Cascades (an organisation looking at the impacts of climate change) outlines three scenarios in the Tigris Euphrates River basin

    • ‘Turbulent transition’ where democratic and economic reforms are implemented to stop conflict in the area over water scarcity

    • ‘Authoritarian autarchy’ where repressive regimes increase their power in the region

    • ‘Precipitated progress‘ where resources are used efficiently but not distributed equally

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Briley Habib

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