Population Patterns & Trends (HL) (DP IB Environmental Systems & Societies (ESS))

Nigeria (stage 2 to stage 3 transition)

Past (30+ years ago)

• Generally high birth and death rates due to poor healthcare and high infant mortality

• Lack of access to education, especially for women

• Cultural and religious norms encouraged large families

Present

• Death rates have fallen due to improved healthcare and sanitation

• Birth rates remain high, but access to education and family planning is increasing

• Youthful population structure: over 43% of the population is under 15 years old (high proportion of young dependents)

Future (30+ years)

• Gradual reduction in birth rates expected as education and urbanisation increase

• High population momentum due to the large youth population

• Challenges: providing jobs, healthcare, and education for a growing population

Japan (stage 4 to stage 5 transition)

Past (30+ years ago)

• Rapid economic growth after World War II

• Low death rates and declining birth rates due to urbanisation and lifestyle changes

• Life expectancy increased significantly

Present

• Ageing population: over 28% of the population is aged 65 or older (high proportion of elderly dependents)

• Very low fertility rate (1.3 children per woman)

• Shrinking workforce and rising dependency ratio

Future (30+ years)

• Population decline expected to continue, with fewer young people to support the elderly

• Increased reliance on automation and immigration to address workforce shortages

• Challenges: managing pensions, healthcare, and economic growth

These are just two examples of countries in different stages of the DTM. To prepare for your exams, it would be a good idea to also research and revise a couple of your own countries and create a mini case study for each, in the same format as above. For example, you could compare Afghanistan (stage 2) and China (stage 4), or Ethiopia (stage 3) and the USA (stage 4).