Causes of Climate Change (HL IB ESS OLD COURSE - IGNORE)

Revision Note

Anthropogenic Influence on Climate

  • Human activities have significantly increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution

    • Particularly carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels

  • This has led to:

    • Global warming: average global temperatures have risen due to enhanced greenhouse effect

    • Climate change: altered weather patterns, sea level rise and impacts on ecosystems and human societies

Global rate of emissions

  • Since 1950, the rate of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions has significantly accelerated

    • This acceleration is due to several factors, including:

  • Industrial Revolution:

    • It began in the late 18th century in Europe

    • Marked a turning point with the widespread use of fossil fuels such as coal and later oil

  • Technological advancements:

    • The 20th century saw rapid industrialisation, transportation development and urbanisation

    • These all contributed to increased emissions

  • Population growth:

    • The global population has increased exponentially

    • This has increased demand for energy and resources, further accelerating emissions

Analysis of ice cores, tree rings and sediments

  • Ice cores, tree rings and sediment deposits provide important data for understanding:

    • Historical climate patterns

    • The relationship between carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures

  • Ice cores:

    • Layers of ice in glaciers trap air bubbles containing the gases from ancient atmospheres

    • Analysis of these bubbles shows historical carbon dioxide levels

      • Ice is deposited as water freezes over time, so the deeper into the ice you go, the older it is

A person wearing gloves and a jacket is selecting an ice core from a shelf containing many other ice cores.
An ice core is being stored in a freezer warehouse for later chemical analysis—ice cores drilled from the Antarctic can reveal data about the composition of the atmosphere over thousands of years
  • Tree rings:

    • Trees form annual rings with varying widths based on climate conditions

      • Thicker rings indicate favourable (warmer) conditions, potentially linked to higher carbon dioxide levels

    • Analysis of the width of tree rings can provide a measure of climate during each year of growth

    • Taking cores from the trunks of older trees can provide samples that go back over hundreds of years

Diagram showing tree trunk cross-section: core sample explains tree bark, most recent growth, warm and cold yearly growth, autumn growth, spring and summer growth, and trunk center.
Dendrochronology uses the growth in a tree trunk each year as a measure of climate
  • Sediments:

    • Deposits in lakes and oceans contain remains of organisms sensitive to environmental changes

      • This provides indirect evidence of past climates

Positive correlation between carbon dioxide and global temperatures

  • Research using data from these sources shows a clear positive correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperatures

    • Carbon dioxide levels: as industrial activities have increased, so have atmospheric carbon dioxide levels

    • Temperature records: proxy data from ice cores, tree rings and other sources indicates that periods with higher carbon dioxide concentrations correspond to warmer global temperatures

    • Modern instrumental records: direct measurements since the mid-20th century confirm a sharp rise in temperatures, aligning with increased emissions

  • Since the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have risen to their highest in Earth's history

    • Before, the highest atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was around 300 parts per million (ppm)

    • It is currently above 400 ppm

Graph showing the average global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration over the last 400 000 years
Average global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration over the last 400 000 years
  • Data show a correlation between changing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and temperature over thousands of years

    • Correlation does not equal causation

    • However, this is convincing evidence supporting the hypothesis that carbon dioxide emissions from human activity are driving up global temperatures

Graphs showing the correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and average Antarctic temperatures over time
There is a correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and average Antarctic temperatures over time

Average global temperatures

  • Thermometers can be used to measure air temperature

  • Records from the mid-1800s show an overall trend of increasing average global temperatures

    • There are some short time periods within this window during which temperatures have declined, but the overall trend is upward

  • The time period since the mid-1800s corresponds with the time during which humans have been burning fossil fuels

Graph showing global average temperatures since 1870
Average global temperature records show some temperature fluctuations but an overall trend of increasing temperatures over time
  • 90% of global carbon dioxide emissions come from industry and burning fossil fuels

    • As carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour are released, they act as greenhouse gases and trap heat within the Earth’s atmosphere

    • Human activities are responsible for almost all of the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the last 150 years

Graph showing how global concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have changed since the year 1000
Since the 1960s, global concentrations of carbon dioxide have risen from 320 ppm to just over 425 ppm (2024)

The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

  • The enhanced greenhouse effect is different from the natural greenhouse effect

    • It is the result of human activities that release excessive greenhouse gases into the atmosphere

    • This leads to an intensified trapping of heat and results in global warming

  • The natural greenhouse effect is a necessary process

    • It helps regulate the Earth's temperature by trapping some heat to maintain a habitable climate

  • The enhanced greenhouse effect disrupts this balance as a result of greenhouse gas concentrations being artificially increased beyond natural levels

Diagram illustrating the greenhouse effect and enhanced greenhouse effect, showing differences in heat absorption and radiation by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Human activities lead to the emission of greenhouse gases that enhance the greenhouse effect, contributing to global warming

Modelling Climate Change

Systems diagrams and models

  • Representing cause and effect:

    • Systems diagrams and models are tools that can be used to visualise how different factors interact and cause climate change

    • They help us understand cause-and-effect relationships and how changes in one part of the system affect others

Feedback loops

  • Feedback loops are processes that can either amplify or dampen the effects of climate change

    • Positive feedback loops amplify changes

    • Negative feedback loops reduce or counteract changes

  • Global energy balance:

    • The global energy balance is the balance between the energy Earth receives from the Sun and the energy it radiates back into space

    • Changes in this balance can significantly impact the climate

Changes in solar radiation and terrestrial albedo

  • Solar radiation is the primary source of energy for Earth's climate system

  • Variations in solar radiation can lead to changes in climate

    • For example, the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), a period with very few sunspots, was associated with cooler global temperatures

  • Changes in solar radiation can initiate feedback loops

    • Decrease in solar radiation: can cause cooling, leading to an increase in snow and ice cover

      • This increases the Earth's albedo, causing further cooling (negative feedback loop)

      • For example, during the Maunder Minimum, reduced solar radiation contributed to the Little Ice Age

    • Increase in solar radiation: can cause warming, reducing snow and ice cover

      • This decreases the Earth's albedo, causing further warming (positive feedback loop)

Diagram showing how positive feedback loops triggered by global warming are increasing the rate at which the ice caps are melting
Positive feedback loops triggered by global warming are increasing the rate at which the ice caps are melting

Carbon dioxide and methane release

  • Carbon dioxide and methane are greenhouse gases

  • Carbon dioxide and methane get trapped in permafrost as organic matter freezes before it can fully decompose

  • Positive feedback loop:

    • When the permafrost thaws due to warming temperatures, these trapped gases are released into the atmosphere

    • These greenhouse gases then contribute to further global warming and climate change

Diagram showing how positive feedback loops triggered by human-induced global warming are increasing the rate at which further greenhouse gases are released from permafrost
Positive feedback loops triggered by human-induced global warming are increasing the rate at which further greenhouse gases are released from permafrost

Crossing the planetary boundary for climate change

  • Climate change is one of the nine planetary boundaries outlined by the planetary boundaries model

    • Planetary boundaries are thresholds that lead to significant environmental changes if they are crossed

  • Evidence suggests Earth has already crossed the boundary for climate change

    • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a leading authority on climate science

    • IPCC reports provide comprehensive assessments of climate change, based on the latest scientific research

    • These reports show:

      • Significant increases in global temperatures:

        • Over the past century, the average global temperature has risen by approximately 1.1 °C

        • The most rapid warming has occurred in recent decades

      • Rising greenhouse gas concentrations:

        • Levels of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere have increased dramatically

        • Due to human activities like burning fossil fuels, deforestation and agriculture,

      • Current impacts:

        • These changes contribute to more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, storms and flooding

        • As well as long-term effects like rising sea levels and shifting ecosystems

Examiner Tips and Tricks

Make sure you are clear on the difference between positive and negative feedback loops and how they impact the climate. It can be easy to get the two types of feedback confused!

It might help to remember it this way—when it comes to climate, it is often the opposite to how it sounds: positive feedback is often a negative thing, as it leads to extremes, whereas negative feedback is often a positive thing, as it counteracts changes and brings them back to equilibrium.

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