Climate Change: Anthropogenic Causes
The greenhouse effect
- When radiation from the sun hits the earth, it is radiated back from the earth's surface
- A greenhouse gas is a gas that absorbs this re-radiated radiation, trapping it in the earth's atmosphere so that it is not lost to space
- Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have a similar effect to the glass in a greenhouse, hence the term greenhouse gas, and their effect being known as the greenhouse effect
- The greenhouse effect is important to ensure that Earth is warm enough for life; if it were not for the insulating effect of greenhouse gases, Earth would see similar dramatic temperature fluctuations to its neighbouring planets
- Temperatures on Mars range between 20°C and −153°C
- There are many greenhouse gases including
- Carbon dioxide
- Methane
- It is thought that increasing levels of carbon dioxide and methane are entering the atmosphere as a result of human activities, leading to increased rates of atmospheric warming
- The atmospheric warming, and therefore the changing climate, for which humans are thought to be responsible is known as anthropogenic climate change
Greenhouse effect diagram
Greenhouse gases absorb radiation re-emitted from the earth's surface, trapping it in the atmosphere
Human activities & carbon dioxide
- Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have fluctuated throughout Earth's history due to events such as volcanic eruptions and the weathering of limestone rocks
- Since the industrial revolution, however, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have risen to their highest in Earth's history
- The industrial revolution began in the late 1700s when the combustion of fossil fuels to power factories, transport, and homes became commonplace
- Fossil fuel combustion releases carbon dioxide
- A clear correlation can be seen between increasing levels of carbon dioxide since the industrial revolution and increasing global temperatures, providing evidence for the role of human activities in causing global warming
- Note that a correlation alone is not enough to prove causation, but this evidence can be taken alongside what we know about greenhouse gases and other evidence to provide a growing body of proof
- In addition to the burning of fossil fuels, carbon dioxide is also released into the atmosphere when natural stores of carbon are damaged or destroyed by human activities
- These carbon stores are known as carbon sinks
- Carbon sinks include trees, soils, peat bogs, and the oceans
- Deforestation, soil degradation, peat harvesting, and ocean warming all contribute to the addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere
Human activities & methane
- Methane (CH4) is a simple hydrocarbon
- It is present as a gas in the atmosphere, and underground, and is the main component of natural gas fossil fuel
- Methane can be produced by naturally occurring processes in some types of bacteria, but levels have risen significantly in the last 150 years due to human activities
- Methane can be produced by several human activities
- Methane is released from the guts of ruminant mammals, such as cattle, that are farmed by humans
- The intensive farming of such animals has greatly increased their contribution to atmospheric methane
- Landfill sites release methane when organic matter such as food waste decomposes
- Extraction of fossil fuels from underground releases methane
- Anaerobic bacteria in waterlogged rice paddy fields release methane
- Methane is released from the guts of ruminant mammals, such as cattle, that are farmed by humans
- In addition to the list above, the warming of the poles that results from global warming also leads to the release of methane from natural stores such as permafrost
- Permafrost is ground that remains frozen all year round
Atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentration graph
Atmospheric concentrations of both carbon dioxide and methane have increased since the industrial revolution due to human activities. ppm = parts per million and ppb = parts per billion.
NOS: Students should be able to distinguish between positive and negative correlation and should also distinguish between correlation and causation
- Correlation analysis involves measuring two variables and assessing the relationship between the variables to look for an association
- A relationship that shows correlation can show
- Positive correlation - as one variable increases, the other variable also increases
- Negative correlation - as one variable increases the other variable decreases
- In climate change research, evidence from Antarctic ice cores shows a positive correlation between global temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide over hundreds of thousands of years
Global temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide correlation graph
Evidence from Antarctic ice cores shows a positive correlation between global temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide over hundreds of thousands of years
- While a correlation shows evidence of association, in itself it does not provide evidence of causation, i.e. that a change in one variable has caused a change in the other
- It is not possible to say which variable has influenced the other
- It is possible that an unknown third variable might be involved
- Note that in the case of carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperatures, there is additional evidence to support a causal link
Examiner Tip
Note that the greenhouse effect, global warming and climate change are terms that are often used interchangeably, but the terms have different meanings:
- Global warming refers to the rise in global temperatures mainly due to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
- Climate change refers to the increasing changes in the measures of climate over a long period of time – including precipitation, temperature, and wind patterns. These are often a consequence of global warming
- The greenhouse effect is a naturally occurring event, constantly occurring due to the atmosphere and sunlight