Climate Change Uncertainty (Cambridge (CIE) AS Environmental Management)

Scientific Bias & Misuse of Climate Data

• Industry-funded research, such as the research carried out by large fossil fuel companies, can purposefully downplay the impact of certain activities on climate change

  • This can skew public perception, influencing environmental policies and actions

Examples of Data Misuse

• Cherry-picking data (i.e. carefully selecting specific bits of data) to downplay the severity of climate change impacts, such as melting ice caps, may present a distorted and biased version of what is happening

  • This can hinder public understanding of the urgency of climate change

  • For example, biased research funded by fossil fuel industries may undermine the urgency of renewable energy initiatives, influencing public opinion and delaying necessary transitions to cleaner energy sources

• Media misrepresenting climate studies can lead to misinformation, shaping public perception and potentially influencing policy decisions

• Misinterpreting or exaggerating uncertainties in climate models can contribute to scepticism and delayed climate action

Climate Models

• One of the main issues surrounding climate change is how to properly identify who or what is responsible for causing it

• The cause of climate change is a highly debated issue, primarily due to climate change denialism (from the powerful corporations that stand to gain most from continued use of fossil fuels), conflicting environmental value systems and the complexity of global climate models

Complexity of Global Climate Models

• Climate models are sophisticated computer simulations that integrate numerous factors and processes to project future climate scenarios

• These models take into account the incredibly complex interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, ice, and all other components of the Earth system

• Like any model, however, even the world's best climate simulators still come with a significant level of uncertainty

Uncertainty in Predictions

• Climate models provide projections rather than precise predictions, as they aim to capture the range of potential future climate outcomes

• Uncertainties arise from the complexity of the climate system, limitations in observational data, and challenges in accurately simulating all relevant processes

  • Different models and scenarios yield a range of possible outcomes, contributing to uncertainties in predicting the precise magnitude, timing, and regional patterns of climate change

  • Communicating and managing uncertainty is a critical aspect of climate change discussions to ensure informed decision-making

Impact on Public Perception & Policy

• Conflicting environmental value systems and uncertainties in climate predictions can influence public perception and policy decisions

  • Debates may arise from differing interpretations of scientific evidence, risk perceptions, economic considerations, and political ideologies

• The scientific community continues to refine climate models and improve their accuracy, but the inherent complexity of the climate system makes predicting specific outcomes challenging

  • Addressing these challenges requires interdisciplinary collaboration, transparent communication of uncertainties, and open dialogue among stakeholders

  • Recognising the uncertainties associated with climate change is important for engaging in constructive discussions, informed decision-making, and taking effective climate action