Climate Change Research & Data (Cambridge (CIE) AS Environmental Management)

Climate Change Research

Reliable Environmental Data Collection

• Reliable data is accurate, consistent, and trustworthy, forming the foundation for well-informed decisions regarding the environment

  • Reliable data is essential for policymakers to make informed decisions and develop effective strategies for managing environmental issues, such as climate change

  • Reliable data prevents the misuse of information, building trust with the scientific and wider community, including the public

Bias in Environmental Data Collection

• Data can only be truly reliable if it is unbiased

  • Bias introduces personal or systemic preferences that can influence research findings

  • Scientific data collected with bias leads to unreliable outcomes, supporting specific viewpoints and potentially causing mistrust with the scientific and wider community

  • Unbiased data collection that properly follows the scientific method is crucial for maintaining the integrity of environmental investigations

The Development of Climate Change Data

• Historical climate change data:

  • Early climate change research faced challenges due to a scarcity of long-term environmental data

  • Global climate data records go back as far as around 1880

  • However, the accuracy of data collected before this period is considered to be limited and climate data was only recorded in very specific regions before this time

  • Using historical climate data requires careful consideration of factors like the equipment used and whether the times and dates of data collection were recorded accurately

• Development of scientific theory:

  • Early 19th-century observations of greenhouse gases and natural changes in climate contributed to the development of scientific theories around climate change

  • Geological deposits, coastal landforms, and polar ice sheets provided scientists with evidence of past changes in climate, supporting their climate theories

  • Initially dismissed, the idea of climate change gained acceptance as more data, including carbon dioxide levels, was collected

  • Over time, accumulation of data allowed scientists to develop theories like the connection between carbon emissions and global warming

• Advances in technology:

  • As early as 1895, improvements in technologies that helped study infrared radiation absorption by different gases allowed scientists to better understand of the role of carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour in climate change

  • Advancements in technology and transport also contributed to greater access to polar regions and the extraction of historical climate information from ice cores

  • Modern technology, including satellite monitoring and precise weather equipment, enhances data reliability and supports climate change theory

  • Access to recent ice records reinforces the connection between atmospheric data and climate change

Evidence for Climate Change

• Scientists have long hypothesised that:

  • Climate change in the form of global warming is currently taking place

  • Human activities that increase the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are responsible for climate change

• Several different types of evidence can be used to support these hypotheses:

  • Records of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels

  • Records of average global temperatures

  • Records of changing plant communities gained from sampling of pollen grains preserved in peat over time

  • Dendrochronology

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 

• Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have fluctuated throughout Earth's history due to events such as volcanic eruptions and the weathering of limestone rocks

  • Scientists know this from having analysed the gas composition of bubbles formed in ancient ice cores

  • Ice is deposited as water freezes over time, so the deeper into the ice you go, the older it is

• Since the industrial revolution, however, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have risen to their highest in Earth's history

  • Prior to the industrial revolution, the highest atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was around 300 parts per million (ppm), and it is currently above 400 ppm

• Data show a correlation between changing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and temperature over thousands of years

  • Note that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is not thought to be the only factor affecting climate; it is known that events such as solar winds and sun spots can affect the climate on Earth, but scientists think that the effects of such events are small in comparison to that of atmospheric carbon dioxide

• Correlation does not equal causation, but together with what scientists know about carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas, this is strong evidence that carbon dioxide released by human activities since the industrial revolution is causing increasing global temperatures

Average Global Temperatures

• Thermometers can be used to measure air temperature, and thermometer records from different places around the world over extended periods of time can be put together to show average global temperature change over time

• Records from the mid-1800s show an overall trend of increasing average global temperatures

  • There are some short time periods within this window during which temperatures have declined, but the overall trend is upwards

• The time period since the mid-1800s corresponds with the time during which humans have been burning fossil fuels and therefore releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere

• 90% of global carbon dioxide emissions come from industry and burning fossil fuels

• As carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour are released, they act as greenhouse gases and trap heat within the Earth’s atmosphere

• Human activities are responsible for almost all of the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the last 150 years