Future Large Scale Release of Carbon (Edexcel A Level Geography)
Revision Note
Written by: Louise Stone
Reviewed by: Bridgette Barrett
Future Emissions
Future Uncertainties
There are many uncertainties about future global warming and contributing natural and human factors
Uncertainty about natural factors include:
The role of carbon sinks and their capacity to cope with changes
Possible feedback mechanisms such as carbon release from peatlands and permafrost
Tipping points associated with forest dieback and the reversal of thermohaline circulation
Uncertainty about human factors include:
Future rates of global economic and population growth
Planned reduction in global carbon emissions
Exploitation of renewable energy sources
Natural Factors
Research has been conducted to see what the future changes to carbon stores may be with increasing carbon emissions
Future Changes to Carbon Stores
Terrestrial Carbon Sinks | Oceanic Carbon Sinks |
|---|---|
Modelled to increase until 2050 When saturation is reached, they begin to act as sources:
| Increased store in sea grasses and algae, but overall reduction as sink because:
|
Human Factors
The IPCC has identified key factors driving anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
The top five countries that emit carbon dioxide are China, the USA, India, Japan and Russia
China overtook the USA as a result of rapid urbanisation and industrialisation which indicates a positive relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions
Adaptation Strategies
Adaptation Strategies
Even if all carbon emissions stopped today, we would still have enhanced global warming due to past emissions and the length of time it takes for greenhouse gases to disperse from the atmosphere
There are two types of climate change adaptation strategies:
Hard strategies which require technology e.g., wind farms
Soft strategies which involve legislation e.g., land use zoning
All adaptation strategies have benefits and risks associated with them
Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies
Adaptation Strategy | Benefits | Risks |
|---|---|---|
Water conservation and management | Less resources used Less groundwater abstraction Changing attitudes e.g., use of more grey water | Efficiency and management cannot match any increases in demand for water Promotion and enforcement of strategies by the government needed to change habits e.g., smart meters |
Resilient agricultural systems | High-tech, drought-tolerant species help resistance to climate change and increased diseases Low-tech methods and better practices lead to healthier soils which may help carbon sequestration and water storage e.g., selective irrigation, crop rotation, agroforestry More ‘indoor’ intensive farming | Expensive technology, seeds and breeds unavailable to subsistence farmers in developing countries Indoor and intensive farming has high energy costs Genetic modification is still controversial but still used to create resistant strains of rich and soya Increasing food insecurity leads to countries looking for quick fixes |
Land-use planning | Land-use zoning, building restrictions in areas vulnerable to flooding Enforcing strict run-off controls and soakaways | Public dislike Abandoning high-risk areas is often impossible as they are often megacities Would need strong governance, enforcement and compensation |
Flood-risk management | Hard management often used e.g., river dredging, flood defences Simple changes can reduce flood risk e.g., permeable tarmac Reducing deforestation and increasing afforestation upstream to absorb water and reduce flood risk downstream | Funding sources are often debated Land owners will often demand compensation Constant maintenance is required for hard management e.g., dredging |
Solar radiation management | Geoengineering involves ideas and plans to intervene to counteract global warming Idea to use orbiting satellites to reflect some radiation back into space like a giant sunshade which would cool the Earth within months and be relatively cheap compared to mitigation strategies | These are untried and untested Would not eliminate the worst effects of greenhouse gases such as acidification Involves messing with a very complex system which could have unintended consequences Would need to continue geoengineering for decades or centuries as there would be a rapid adjustment in the climate system if it just stopped suddenly |
Mitigation Strategies
Mitigation Strategies
Mitigation strategies can help rebalance the carbon cycle
Rebalancing the carbon cycle is seen as vital in preserving the Earth’s life systems
The IPCC stated in 2014 that it was possible to keep within the target of no more than a 2°C increase in average global temperatures if:
Fossil fuel use was significantly reduced
Fossil fuel use was totally eliminated by 2100
Mitigation strategies are considered vital to staying within the 2°C increase
Mitigation strategies usually operate through five specific methods:
Carbon taxation
Renewable switching
Energy efficiency
Afforestation
Carbon capture and storage (CCS)
The UK has led the way with many of these strategies but politics and austerity measures since 2011 has had an impact
Mitigation Strategies Used in the UK
Mitigation Strategy | Examples of Policies in the UK |
|---|---|
Carbon taxation | Carbon price floor tax sets a minimum prices companies will have to pay to emit carbon dioxide which was unpopular and the policy was frozen in 2015 Lower road taxes for low-carbon cars were scrapped in 2015 In 2015, oil and gas exploration tax relief was expanded to support fossil fuels which led to the fracking debate |
Renewable switching | Renewable energy (solar, wind and wave) provide intermittent electricity, while fossil fuels provide continuous power which is vital for our current demands The Climate Change Levy, designed in 2001 to encourage investment in renewable energy was cut in 2015 |
Energy efficiency | The Green Deal scheme encouraged energy-saving improvements in homes e.g., energy efficient boilers and lights, improved insulation which was scrapped in 2015 Energy suppliers must comply with the Energy Company Obligation scheme to deliver energy efficient methods to households |
Afforestation | Tree planting in the UK is increasing which helps carbon sequestration Tree planting involves the Forestry Commission, charities (e.g., the National Trust and Woodland Trust), landowners and local authorities, The Big Tree Plant campaign encourages communities to plant 1 million new trees (mostly in urban areas) |
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) | Few actual geologic carbon capture and storage projects exist in the world, despite its potential Canada’s Boundary Dam is the only large-scale working scheme In 2015, the UK cancelled its investment into full-scale projects at gas and coal powered plants in Scotland and Yorkshire |
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