Resource Futures (AQA A Level Geography)

Coal futures

Discovery of new resource frontiers / locations with better technology to accurately quantify size and quality

Search and discovery of exploitable sources - predicted to be enough coal for 100 years of global demand

New ‘cleaner’ coal technology - such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) – may prolong viability of coal and lower CO2 emissions

Requires little processing so will remain a low cost option

Transported and used globally

Hard for other energy sources to compete as coal is so economically viable

Known as a ‘dirty’ fuel on local, urban and global scales

Linked to poor air quality in China so world’s biggest polluter is trying to switch to more renewable energy sources

Encouragement of ‘clean’ coal technology (e.g. CCS) and coal gasification in attempt to reduce environmental impacts

Cost of coal may increase due to its environmental impact. The extent/impact of this may vary between countries depending on political will

Governments attempting to find less damaging, low-cost energy sources

Countries aiming to diversify energy mixes to safeguard domestic supplies and reduce reliance on imports

E.g. Turkey favouring domestic coal over cheaper imported gas for energy security reasons

Oil and gas futures

At the forefront of identifying new resource frontiers so that previous difficult to access reserves are becoming viable

Offshore such as deepwater sources (e.g. Gulf of Mexico)

Onshore such as fracking

However economic viability depends on oil price being high

Now economically possible to extract from ‘low-density’ reserves (e.g. shale oil, tar sands) which have allowed USA and Canada to increase self-sufficiency

E.g. USA oil reserves are healthy, primarily due to fracking)

Gas and oil reserves will deplete further in the future making them less economically viable in the long-term

Development of fracking will depend on environmental consequences and what governments and societies are prepared to accept

Impacts on USA populations: atmospheric, soil and water contamination, leading to local-level controversies

Ireland, Scotland and Germany have banned fracking due to environmental risks - this may lead to others following 

Likelihood of government subsidies to domestic energy companies to reduce reliance on foreign fuel imports

Policies of ‘protectionism’ in the USA to secure supplies and cut out need for importing from politically unstable OPEC countries

Nuclear futures

Some countries will find it hard to develop a nuclear sector without the help of TNCs as they may lack the technical expertise

The prospect of harnessing the immense power of nuclear fusion is some way off but is the ‘holy grail’ that would change the sector forever

Increased costs of construction to ensure higher safety standards

Early power stations (some built in the 1960s) are coming to end of lives – high cost of decommissioning

‘End of operation’ costs have been the reason for several contractors withdrawing support E.g. in Feb 2017, Toshiba withdrew from the new Moorside plant, Cumbria, UK, threatening it’s development

Nuclear produces consistent, large and reliable electricity supply without release of CO2 

Issues with radiation from accidents, E.g. Chernobyl 1986, Fukushima 2011 

Issues over nuclear waste storage has led to significant public doubt in countries with nuclear energy programmes

Chernobyl 1986 (Ukraine) – led to contamination of much of Europe due to nuclear fallout; very few stations built in the following decades

Fukushima – all of Japan’s 50 reactors put offline following this; by mid-2017 only five had been brought back on line

In Germany the government closed 8 out of 15 plants due to pubic protests about the safety of nuclear reactors

May receive a resurgence of political support following Russia’s war in Europe

Renewables futures

Renewable energy technology is advancing quickly  

Wind will gain growth as advances in turbine blades maximise energy produced

Advances in photovoltaic technology are improving efficiency of solar energy, although storing the energy for long periods remains a problem

Wind requires industry subsidies to make it economically competitive with fossil fuels due to the high costs of production

Solar is seeing the most extensive growth as costs and scale of production is increasing

Biomass is only viable with government tax exemptions due to high storage and transport costs

The economics of renewables make them more attractive as they become more efficient

Wind has several environmental issues to overcome, such as the impact on bird life and the visual landscape as well as on local house prices

Solar works best when using unproductive land, such as in Morocco, where 100s of hectares of semi-desert is being developed into solar farms

The continuing environmental issues of fossil fuels mean renewables will remain the environmentally friendly choice

Wind is more politically acceptable to public when offshore, particularly in densely populated countries like the UK

Solar power can help governments meet demands in remote rural areas where any increase in energy will improve people’s quality of life

Politicians are moving towards renewables as they become more efficient, environmentally friendly and sustainable

Water futures

Large scale engineering developments helping to redirect water from areas of surplus to areas of deficit, E.g. China’s South-North project

Regional schemes to desalinate water E.g. Dead Sea project in Jordan)

Desalination is a huge growth area - traditional evaporation schemes are making way for more efficient but more expensive reverse osmosis technology, E.g. in Tampa Bay, Florida, where 25 million gallons of water is desalinated each day

When water shortage is an issue, the structure of private companies often means that only those that can afford water receive it

E.g. in Peru and Bolivia, mining companies gain more share of water than rural communities

Access to water security is more about economic status and distribution than quantity of rainfall or rivers

Trading of water likely to become larger in scale as water becomes more desirable and valuable

Increased use of water for agriculture and industry will continue to have large impacts on water quality and drainage – this means EIAs will become more important to ensure sustainability

‘Future-proofing’ river basin management strategies can help deal with these challenges

For e.g. ‘integrated basin management’ where all users involved in the decision making

LICs will look to  learn from HICs mistakes in terms of water management to reduce negative environmental impacts

Many analysts predict water to be the most likely cause of future international conflict 

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals for 2030) include the goals of ‘ensuring availability of water and sanitation for all’ and ‘safe management of water and waste chemicals’

Recycling of water likely to increase in importance

Mineral ore futures

Accessing mineral reserves in challenging environments will be aided by remote sensing using magnets, polarisation, GPS and 3D mapping

Developments in mining and processing are allowing poorer, lower grade reserves to be exploited

Decreased demand for specific mineral ores as a result of inventing substitutes or alternatives

For e.g. fibre optics is replacing copper for internet cabling and car body parts are being constructed from plastic rather than steel

As minerals become increasingly expensive, alternative materials become more attractive - this is known as the ‘economics of substitution’

This decreases the demand for the original mineral, causing its price to fall

High prices will be required to bring new reserves into play that are more expensive to exploit

Metal prices likely to remain relatively high to encourage investment in technology and exploration that will in turn increase supply

As the richest ores become exhausted, low-grade reserves are mined, requiring larger scale operations which cause more environmental damage, especially  if open-cast methods are used

If mining moves to less accessible, resource frontier locations (e.g. rainforest or fragile cold environments) there is high potential for environmental damage

Mine restoration projects help regenerate areas, for e.g. the Eden Project, Cornwall, UK - a former clay mine

Trade will continue to be dominated by large TNCs such as Rio Tinto

Mining operations take place in diverse regions, irrespective of political borders if they can secure operating licences

Political tensions where companies seek to extract minerals from Global Commons for e.g. the Arctic sea floor

Rare Earth Elements (REEs), used in cutting edge technologies, to become increasingly sought after and protected by governments

In 2010, China withheld exports of REEs but the USA complained to the World Trade Organisation and in 2015, China was ordered to lift export quotas