Future Prospects (AQA A Level Geography)

Future of the Population

Prospects for the Global Population

• Although global population growth rates are in decline, UN predictions suggest total global population will continue to rise for some time

  • Expected to increase from current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050

  • Could peak at nearly 10.4 billion by 2085

  • Possible decline after from 2085 onwards

• These trends are due to:

  • A decline in fertility rate

    • Predicted to decline from a global average of 2.5 today to 2 children per woman in 2100

    • The fertility replacement rate is 2.1 to allow for infant mortality, so a rate below that means population will fall

  • An increase in life expectancy

    • Better healthcare and standard of living mean more people are living for longer

• Future total population predictions are problematic

  • They rely on current trends continuing

  • Political agendas in some areas might bring in anti- or pro-natalist policies which impact birth rates

    • E.g. Singapore and Japan currently have policies in place to encourage people to have more children to lower their dependency ratios

  • They don’t take into account external factors, such as war and pandemics, that can increase death rates significantly

• Most predictions follow the medium variant of the UN’s predictions

• The structure of all country’s population will continue to change

  • Youthful structures in fast growing populations such as in Nigeria will make the most of the demographic dividend

  • Many more countries will move into stage 4 and 5 of the demographic transition model and have ageing populations

    • 12% of global population was aged over 60 in 2015

    • Predicted to rise to 25% by 2050 (excluding Africa)

• Population growth rates will continue to vary spatially

Appraisal of Environmental Relationships

Appraisal of Environmental Relationships

• Careful management of future populations and their environments is essential if the challenges are to be overcome

• The challenges and management strategies will vary from place to place

• In the developed world:

  • The population of many European countries, such as Germany and Russia, are likely to decline

  • Japan too is facing a declining population

  • This will leave high elderly dependent populations with high dependency ratios

  • Life expectancy will continue to increase

  • A shrinking population of working-age people will be relied on to pay for the elderly, for example through taxes to pay for pensions

• Management of this issue includes pro-natalist strategies to encourage higher birth rates

  • In 2022, the Japanese government announced plans to provide an additional US$592 to couples who have a child

  • Critics argue this won’t be enough to turn the problem around

• Encouraging immigration of working age population is another strategy

  • In 2020 the UK government introduced a points-based immigration system to encourage workers, including agricultural workers, truck drivers, and nurses, to help fill labour gaps

  • However, immigration policies can be politically unpopular

    • Japan has a poor record of immigration integration

    • Republican policy in the USA has resisted Mexican immigration

• In the developing world, the issues are different:

  • Very fast transitions through the stages of the demographic transition model

    • The fertility rates of China and Brazil decreased from 6 to 2 in just 30 years

    • The same took 80 years in the UK

  • Similar transitions are expected in Africa but in the last 20 years fertility rates have fallen much less than expected

    • In Niger the fertility rate has fallen from 7.8 to 6.5 in the last 30 years

  • Management of population in LICs and NEEs is increasingly focusing on the role of education

    • Educating women is one of the best ways to bring down fertility rates quickly

    • Giving women the opportunity to have careers reduces the time available to them to have children

    • In Ghana, women with a high school education have an average fertility rate of 2.5, whereas the rate for those with no education is 6

  • However, progress in educating women in some sub-saharan African countries is slow

    • High costs to the government and corrupt governance is to blame

    • There can be poor access to family planning which offsets any gains made by education policies

• Other strategies for future population-environment management centre around resource consumption

  • Sustainable development of agricultural practices and energy production to conserve scarce resources and manage the supply

  • Investment into renewable energy technology will bring costs down and make renewable energy more viable for poorer countries

  • Government policies to reduce and conserve resource consumption

    • E,g, following up on the commitments set at the COP summits in Paris and Egypt

  • Educating people about their resource use to ensure food, water and minerals are not wasted unnecessarily