Sub‑Saharan Africa: growth and development
Figure 2: Kenya population, millions, 1960 to 2020
Extract E
‘Demography will shape Africa’s future’
Falling birth rates, when accompanied by rising literacy, can help kick-start growth. In Kenya, 39% of the population is below the age of 15, falling from 43% in 2009. The labour force (15–64 years) is 57% and is the fastest growing population group. 6% of the population is over the age of 60. The number of children per family has fallen sharply, from 8.1 children in 1978 to 4.6 children in 2008, and it is projected to possibly reach 2.4 children by 2050.
In the 1970s, little more than half of children in sub‑Saharan Africa were enrolled in primary school. That share has shot up to almost 100%. The statistic is slightly misleading since the percentage of children regularly attending school is nearer 60%.
Why does Kenya’s population continue to rise rapidly while family size declines? There are two reasons. First, due to high fertility in previous decades, there are many more families in Kenya today. So even though families are smaller, the total number of children continues to grow. Second, Kenyans are living longer with better healthcare – for example, polio was eradicated in 2014. Life expectancy is projected to increase from 54 years today to 68 years by 2050.
28% of Kenya is urbanised and is becoming rapidly more so. By the 2030s, it is expected that 36% of Kenyans will live in towns or cities rather than the poorer rural areas. Rich countries are urban countries. No country has ever reached high income levels with low urbanisation. Large urban centres have two distinct economic advantages. First, as more people interact, there is more scope for innovation. Young people need jobs, but they also create jobs. Kenya has an educated workforce and a dynamic service industry, which typically has lower barriers of entry than agriculture or manufacturing and provides opportunities for young entrepreneurs. Second, larger groups of population living in close proximity allow for economies of scale.
In light of these facts, Kenya’s future pattern of population growth can be a force for good. A large urbanising and well-educated population tends to generate a strong middle class and vibrant private sector. Economic development may be easier to achieve and sustain, though it is not guaranteed.
(Source: adapted from https://www.economist.com and https://kenya.unfpa.org https://www.worldbank.org)