Terms of Trade (Edexcel A Level Economics A)
Revision Note
Written by: Steve Vorster
Reviewed by: Jenna Quinn
The Terms of Trade
Terms of trade refer to the ratio of a country’s average price of exports to the country’s average price of imports
The relative price of imports and exports can have a direct bearing on the standard of living within a country
Exporting goods which are highly priced results in higher incomes and the ability to buy cheaper imports
The terms of trade capture the relationship between the average prices of a country's exports and imports
Calculation of the terms of trade
The index for exports and imports is created in much the same way that a consumer price index is created (using a weighted basket of imports and exports)
Worked Example
Calculate the terms of trade for Country X. State if the terms of trade have improved or worsened. In the final column explain what that means for country X
Year | Index of average export prices | Index of average import prices | Calculation of terms of trade | Terms of trade | Improvement or deterioration? | Explanation |
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2012 | 100 | 100 |
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2013 | 100 | 107 |
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2014 | 112 | 108 |
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2015 | 115 | 110 |
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Step 1: Identify the index year as this is the base year and complete calculations for the index year
The index year will be the year in which both the index for export and import prices is 100
Year | Index of average export prices | Index of average import prices | Calculation of terms of trade | Terms of trade | Improvement or deterioration? | Explanation |
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2012 | 100 | 100 | 100 | Base year | Both export and import index = 100 | |
2013 | 100 | 107 |
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2014 | 112 | 107 |
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2015 | 115 | 110 |
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Step 2: Calculate the terms of trade for each year and state if they have improved/deteriorated
Year | Index of average export prices | Index of average import prices | Calculation of terms of trade | Terms of trade | Improvement or deterioration? | Explanation |
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2012 | 100 | 100 | 100 | Base year | Both export and import index = 100 | |
2013 | 100 | 107 | 93.45 | Deterioration |
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2014 | 112 | 107 | 104.67 | Improvement |
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2015 | 115 | 110 | 104.55 | Deterioration |
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Step 3: Explain what the improvement or deterioration means (explanation)
Year | Index of average export prices | Index of average import prices | Calculation of terms of trade | Terms of trade | Improvement or deterioration? | Explanation |
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2012 | 100 | 100 | 100 | Base year | Both export and import index = 100 | |
2013 | 100 | 107 | 93.45 | Deterioration | One unit of exports buys fewer imports compared to the previous year | |
2014 | 112 | 107 | 104.67 | Improvement | One unit of exports buys more imports compared to the previous year | |
2015 | 115 | 110 | 104.55 | Deterioration | One unit of exports buys fewer imports compared to the previous year |
Factors influencing a country's terms of trade
Relative inflation rates: Inflation increases the price of goods/services within a country. This means that their price is now more expensive to the rest of the world. If the exports are price inelastic in demand this will improve the terms of trade, if elastic then it is likely to worsen the terms of trade
Relative productivity rates: continuous improvements in productivity can lower costs and these can be passed on in the form of lower prices. Lower prices for export products will mean that the terms of trade will deteriorate i.e. fewer imports can be bought with one unit of exports
Changes in exchange rates: exchange rates constantly change the price of exports and imports. If prices change then the terms of trade between the two countries change. Specific data would need to be provided in order to determine if the terms of trade have improved or deteriorated for each trading partner
Impact of Changes in the Terms of Trade
Depending on the contribution that net exports make to GDP, changes to the terms of trade can have far reaching impacts on an economy. These include
Changes to the current account balance in the Balance of Payments
Changes to national output (GDP)
Changes to unemployment levels
Changes to the level of international competitiveness
Changes to disposable income
Changes to standards of living
The impact of changes to the terms of trade are more complex than assuming that an improvement in the terms of trade is good and a deterioration is bad
E.g. Improvement in terms of trade → one unit exports buys more imports → standard of living improves
However, it depends on what caused the improvement and on the price elasticity of demand for exports and imports
If the improvement was caused by an increase in the price of exports, then following the law of demand fewer exports will be consumed by foreigners. How much fewer depends on the PED for exports. This could worsen the standard of living
PED and Changes To the Terms of Trade
Condition (ToT) | Cause | PED Value | Likely outcome |
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Improvement | Price of exports rises | If PED of exports is inelastic then the reduction in quantity demanded will be less than the increase in price and the economy will benefit |
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Improvement | Price of imports falls | If PED of imports is elastic (necessity) then the increase in quantity demanded will be more than the decrease in price and the economy will spend more on imports |
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Deterioration | Price of exports falls | If PED of exports is elastic then the increase in quantity demanded will be more than the decrease in price and the economy will benefit |
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Deterioration | Price of imports rises | Where demand for imports is price inelastic, consumers would demand the goods in similar proportions and thus spend significantly more on imports |
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