Investment Appraisal (Edexcel A Level Business)
Revision Note
An Introduction to Investment Appraisal
Investment appraisal involves comparing the expected future cash flows of an investment with the initial outlay for that investment
A business may want to analyse
How soon the investment will recoup the initial outlay
How profitable the investment will be
Before an investment can be appraised, key data will need to be collected, including
Sales forecasts
Fixed and variable costs data
Pricing information
Borrowing costs
The collection and analysis of this data is likely to take some time
It requires significant experience to interpret the data appropriately before the investment appraisal can take place
Different methods are used to appraise the value of an investment, including:
The simple payback period
The average rate of return (ARR)
The net present value of discounted cash flow
Simple Payback Period
The payback period is a calculation of the amount of time it is expected an investment will take to pay for itself
Where net cash flows are expected to be constant over time the payback period can be calculated using the formula
Worked Example
1. Simple Payback Calculation
Gomez Carpets is considering an investment in a new storage facility at a cost of £200,000. It expects additional net cash flow of £30,000 per year as a result of the investment.
Calculate the Payback period for the investment. (3)
Step 1 - Divide the initial outlay by the additional expected net cash flow
(1 mark)
Step 2 - Convert the outcome to years and months
6 years
0.67 years = 8.04 months (1 mark)
Payback period = 6 years and 8 months (3 marks for the correct answer)
Worked Example
2. Payback calculation for varying cash flow over time
Hammer and Son provides a household repairs service that has recently employed a new handywoman who requires her own van. The new van will be purchased for £32,000
The net cash flows are expected to vary over the five years following its purchase and are shown in the table below.
Year | Net cash Flow (£) | Cumulative Cash Flow (£) |
---|---|---|
0 | (32,000) | (32,000) |
1 | 14,000 | (18,000) |
2 | 10,000 | (8,000) |
3 | 6,000 | (2,000) |
4 | 3,000 | 1,000 |
5 | 2,000 | 3,000 |
Calculate the payback period for the van (4)
Step 1 - Identify the final year where the cumulative cash flow is negative
In this case the cumulative cash flow figure is -£2,000 at the end of Year 3
This is the remaining amount (outlay) outstanding. (1 mark)
Step 2 - Calculate the monthly net cash flow for the next year
£3,000 ÷ 12 (months) = £250 (1 mark)
Step 3 - Divide the remaining outlay outstanding by the monthly net cash flow
£2000 ÷ £250 = 8 months (1 mark)
Step 4 - Identify the payback period
In this case the Payback period is 3 years and 8 months (1 mark)
Benefits and Drawbacks of the Using the Payback Method
Benefits | Drawbacks |
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Average Rate of Return (ARR)
The Average Rate of Return compares the average profit per year generated by an investment with the value of the initial outlay
The average rate of return is calculated using the formula
The outcome of the formula is expressed as a percentage which makes it easy to compare different investment options
Worked Example
Creative Frames, a small artwork framing business, is considering an investment of £40,000 in new machinery. Megan, the business owner, believes that total cash inflows over a 6-year period will be £140,000 and total cash outflows will be £92,000.
Calculate the Average Rate of Return of the proposed investment. (4 marks)
Step 1 - Calculate the total profit over the lifetime of the investment
Total cash inflows - Total cash outflows = Total profit
£140,000 - £92,000 = £48,000 (1 mark)
Step 2 - Divide the total profit by the number of years of the investment project to find the average annual profit
£48,000 ÷ 6 year = £8,000 (1 mark)
Step 3 - Divide the average annual profit by the initial outlay
£8,000 ÷ £40,000 = 0.2 (1 mark)
Step 4 - Multiply the outcome by 100 to find the percentage
0.2 x 100 = 20% (1 mark)
The Advantages & Disadvantages of Using the Average Rate of Return (ARR)
Advantages | Disadvantages |
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Net Present Value of Discounted Cash Flow
Net Present Value (NPV) is a financial metric used to evaluate the value of an investment or a project
The NPV of an investment takes into account the effects of interest rates and time
It represents the present value of the future cash inflows minus the present value of the future cash outflows
To get the present value, the future value has to be discounted (reduced)
This discounting method takes into account the:
The fact that that money received in the future is worth less than money received today due to inflation
The opportunity cost of not having the money available for other uses
To calculate the Net Present Value of an investment the value of all future net cash flows in today’s terms need to be calculated first - and then discounted using a table
The cost of the initial investment is deducted from the total of the discounted net cash flows
If future net cash flows minus the initial investment is positive, then the investment is likely to be worthwhile
If the sum of future net cash flows minus the initial investment is negative, then the investment is unlikely to be worthwhile
Discounted cash flows are calculated using discount tables which allow future cash flows to be expressed in today’s terms
Worked Example
Brownsea Sightseeing Tours Ltd is considering purchasing a new pleasure craft at a cost of £325,000. It expects the investment to achieve the following net cash flows over five years of operation
Year | Net cash Flow (£) | 10% Discount Factor |
---|---|---|
0 | (325,000) | 1.00 |
1 | 110,000 | 0.91 |
2 | 90,000 | 0.83 |
3 | 75,000 | 0.75 |
4 | 65,000 | 0.68 |
5 | 60,000 | 0.62 |
Using the 10% discount factor, calculate the NPV of the leisure craft investment. (4 marks)
Step 1 - Calculate the discounted cash flow for each year by multiplying the net cash flow by the discount factor
(2 marks)
Step 2 - Add together the discounted cash flow values for each year, including Year 0 £325,000 + £100,100 + £74,400 £56,250 + £44,200 + £37,200
= (12,550)
The Net present Value of the investment is -£12,550. This suggests that the investment in the new pleasure craft is not financially worthwhile. (1 mark)
Advantages and Disadvantages of the Net Present Value Method
Advantages | Disadvantages |
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Examiner Tip
A common error made by students is the assumption that discounted cash flow takes into account the effects of inflation on investment decisions. To account for inflation, the discount rate used in the NPV calculation should be adjusted to reflect the expected inflation rate.
Limitations of Investment Appraisal Techniques
Each of the investment appraisal techniques relies upon forecasted future cash flows which may lack accuracy
Managers compiling cash flow forecasts may lack experience or may be biased towards a particular investment
Incomplete past data may make forecasting imprecise or mean that confidence in the data used to compile the forecast is limited
Long-term cash flow forecasts can be inaccurate for several reasons
Unexpected increases in costs
The arrival of new competitors
Changes in consumer tastes
Uncertainties due to economic growth or recession
Factors other than the cost of investment and the return on investment are not considered
Business finances and availability of external finance to fund the investment
The overall corporate objectives
Potential for positive public relations or meeting social responsibilities
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